Saturday MLB Sharp Report

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4:10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (56-44) at Boston Red Sox (50-51)

The Brewers won Friday night's Interleague series opener 4-1, cashing as -175 road favorites. Milwaukee is now 6-1 since the All Star break while Boston falls to 2-6. In this late afternoon rematch, the Brewers hand the ball to lefty Eric Lauer (6-3, 3.84 ERA) and the Red Sox send out righty Nick Pivetta (8-7, 4.35 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a short -120 home favorite and Milwaukee a +100 road dog. Sharps are happy to fade the sinking Red Sox and have grabbed the Brewers at even money, dropping this line to a pick'em (-105 both sides). Milwaukee is 40-28 against righties. Pivetta has a 9.95 ERA in four July starts. The Brewers are 30-24 on the road. Boston is just 25-26 at home. The total opened at a high 10 and the under is being juiced to -115, signaling a possible fall to 9.5. 

 

6:40 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (51-49) at Cincinnati Reds (38-61)

The Orioles won last night's Interleague series opener 6-2, cashing as -125 road favorites. Baltimore is now 5-3 since the break and just 2 games back of a Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Reds own the third worst record in baseball and just dealt their best starting pitching, Luis Castillo, to the Mariners. In tonight's rematch, Baltimore starts righty Dean Kremer (3-2, 3.06 ERA) and Cincinnati counters with fellow righty Tyler Mahle (4-7, 4.48 ERA). This line opened with the Reds listed as a short -120 home favorite and the Orioles a +100 road dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand and have jumped on Baltimore, moving the Orioles from +100 to -105. Interleague dogs are 64-74 this season, producing a 46% win rate but +15 units won due to the plus money payouts. Baltimore is the most profitable team in baseball (+19 units). The Orioles are 6-3 in Kremer's 9 starts this season. Baltimore's biggest edge comes on the mound, sporting a team ERA of 3.91 compared to 5.17 for Cincinnati. 

 

7:20 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (45-54) at Atlanta Braves (60-41)

The Braves took care of business in last night's series opener, winning 5-2 as -220 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Arizona turns to righty Corbin Martin (0-0, 3.93 ERA) and Atlanta counters with fellow righty Ian Anderson (8-6, 5.31 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a -200 home favorite and the Diamondbacks a +185 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive chalk and have steamed the Braves up from -200 to -220. Home favorites -200 or more are 153-65 (70%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against teams who did not are 383-217 (64%), The Braves are 52-26 as a favorite, 35-30 against righties and 34-21 at home. The Diamondbacks are 31-42 as a dog, 29-41 against righties and 18-27 on the road. The Braves hold a distinct advantage at the plate, hitting .248 compared to .227 for the Diamondbacks. Atlanta is +75 in run differential. Arizona is -30. 

 

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