Saturday MLB Sharp Report

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1:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (67-46) at Miami Marlins (50-62)

This is the first game of a doubleheader for these NL East foes. Braves took Friday night's series opener 4-3, cashing as -140 road favorites. In this early afternoon rematch, Atlanta hands the ball to lefty Kyle Muller (0-1, 23.63 ERA) and Miami counters with fellow southpaw Jesus Luzardo (3-4, 3.29 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a short -115 road favorite and the Marlins a 105 home dog. Sharps have pounced on Atlanta at the short chalk price, steaming the Braves up from -115 to -130. Road favorites are 373-248 (60%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous year against teams who did not are 427-249 (63%). Atlanta also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Braves have a big advantage at the plate, hitting .250 compared to .236 for the Fish. Atlanta is 58-27 as a favorite, 30-24 on the road and 26-12 against lefties. 

 

7:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (78-33) at Kansas City Royals (47-67)

The Dodgers cruised to an 8-3 win in last night's Interleague series opener, easily cashing as -270 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Los Angeles turns to lefty Andrew Heaney (1-0, 0.64 ERA) and Kansas City starts righty Brad Keller (6-12, 4.45 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -230 road favorite and the Royals a 210 home dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're laying the big chalk with Los Angeles, steaming the Dodgers up from -230 to -250. Non-division road favorites -200 or more are 31-10 (76%) this season. Los Angeles is 77-32 as a favorite, 38-18 on the road and 53-21 against righties. The Dodgers hold a big edge at the plate (.261 batting average vs .246) and on the mound (2.89 ERA vs 4.64). The Dodgers have won 11 straight games and covered the run-line in all 11 games. Los Angeles is -1.5 (-150) on the spread. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here, as the total has ticked up from 9 to 9.5. The forecasts calls for mid 90s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center at Kauffman Stadium.

 

7:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (63-49) at New York Mets (73-40)

The Phillies pulled up a big 2-1 win over Max Scherzer and the Mets last night, cashing as massive 200 road dogs. In tonight's rematch, Philadelphia turns to righty Aaron Nola (8-8, 3.17 ERA) and New York taps ace righty Jacob deGrom (1-0, 2.53 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -175 home favorite and the Phillies a 160 road dog. Wiseguys expect a bounce back win for the Mets with their ace on the bump, steaming New York up from -175 to -200. The Mets have correlative betting value as a big favorite in a very low total game (6.5). New York is 35-15 (70%) as a home favorite this season. The Mets lead the season series 9-4. We could be in for a low scoring game, as the total is 6.5 with some books juicing the under up to -115. Marty Foster, the home plate ump, is 55% to the under historically. The under is 4-1 in the last five Phillies games and 11-5 in the last 16 Phillies games on the road.

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