Saturday MLB Sharp Report


1:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (67-46) at Miami Marlins (50-62)

This is the first game of a doubleheader for these NL East foes. Braves took Friday night's series opener 4-3, cashing as -140 road favorites. In this early afternoon rematch, Atlanta hands the ball to lefty Kyle Muller (0-1, 23.63 ERA) and Miami counters with fellow southpaw Jesus Luzardo (3-4, 3.29 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a short -115 road favorite and the Marlins a 105 home dog. Sharps have pounced on Atlanta at the short chalk price, steaming the Braves up from -115 to -130. Road favorites are 373-248 (60%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous year against teams who did not are 427-249 (63%). Atlanta also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Braves have a big advantage at the plate, hitting .250 compared to .236 for the Fish. Atlanta is 58-27 as a favorite, 30-24 on the road and 26-12 against lefties. 


7:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (78-33) at Kansas City Royals (47-67)

The Dodgers cruised to an 8-3 win in last night's Interleague series opener, easily cashing as -270 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Los Angeles turns to lefty Andrew Heaney (1-0, 0.64 ERA) and Kansas City starts righty Brad Keller (6-12, 4.45 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -230 road favorite and the Royals a 210 home dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're laying the big chalk with Los Angeles, steaming the Dodgers up from -230 to -250. Non-division road favorites -200 or more are 31-10 (76%) this season. Los Angeles is 77-32 as a favorite, 38-18 on the road and 53-21 against righties. The Dodgers hold a big edge at the plate (.261 batting average vs .246) and on the mound (2.89 ERA vs 4.64). The Dodgers have won 11 straight games and covered the run-line in all 11 games. Los Angeles is -1.5 (-150) on the spread. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here, as the total has ticked up from 9 to 9.5. The forecasts calls for mid 90s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center at Kauffman Stadium.


7:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (63-49) at New York Mets (73-40)

The Phillies pulled up a big 2-1 win over Max Scherzer and the Mets last night, cashing as massive 200 road dogs. In tonight's rematch, Philadelphia turns to righty Aaron Nola (8-8, 3.17 ERA) and New York taps ace righty Jacob deGrom (1-0, 2.53 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -175 home favorite and the Phillies a 160 road dog. Wiseguys expect a bounce back win for the Mets with their ace on the bump, steaming New York up from -175 to -200. The Mets have correlative betting value as a big favorite in a very low total game (6.5). New York is 35-15 (70%) as a home favorite this season. The Mets lead the season series 9-4. We could be in for a low scoring game, as the total is 6.5 with some books juicing the under up to -115. Marty Foster, the home plate ump, is 55% to the under historically. The under is 4-1 in the last five Phillies games and 11-5 in the last 16 Phillies games on the road.

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A Numbers Game: Be careful betting baseball games right now, if they don’t involve teams still trying to make the playoffs. Teams that have clinched or teams that are completely out of it will be approaching games far differently. View more tips.

Ian Cameron: USC at Colorado - OVER (73.5). View more picks.