Saturday MLB Sharp Report (8-7)

August 7, 2021 03:35 AM

The Weekend is here! For extensive Saturday betting analysis be sure to join Patrick Meagher, Michael Lombardi and myself LIVE this morning on The Lombardi Line from 10 a.m.-noon. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and updating the top lines moves across all the major sports. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for three MLB games today...

 

1:05 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (58-53) at New York Yankees (60-49)

The Yankees have taken the first two games of this non-division series, winning the opener 5-3 as -190 home favorites and winning again on Friday night 3-2 as -170 home favorites. Invigorated by their trade deadline acquisitions, the suddenly streaking Yankees have now won four straight and seven of their last eight. In this afternoon's rematch, Seattle hands the ball to righty Chris Flexen (10-5, 3.75 ERA) and New York trots out lefty Andrew Heaney (6-8, 5.42 ERA). This line opened with the Yankees listed as a hefty -190 home favorite and the Mariners a + 170 road dog. The public says the line is way too high for a good pitcher like Flexen and are grabbing the Mariners at big plus money. However, despite this lopsided betting, we've seen the Yankees become more of a favorite (-190 to -200). This signals sharp "fade the trendy dog" contrarian favorite value on New York. Non-division home favorites off a win are 201-131 (60.5%) this season. Home favorites -200 or more are 109-45 (70.8%). The Yankees are 4-1 against the Mariners. New York is hitting .236, which ranks 16th in MLB. The Mariners are hitting .222, which ranks 30th and dead last. 

4:15 p.m. ET: New York Mets (56-53) at Philadelphia Phillies (57-53)

The NL East race is tightening and these divisional foes are trending in opposite directions. The Phillies have won six straight and now lead the division by a half-game over the Mets, who have lost two straight and are just 3-7 over their last ten. The Phillies won last night's series opener 4-2, cashing as short -113 home favorites. In this late afternoon rematch, New York starts righty Tylor Megill (1-1, 2.68 ERA) and Philadelphia counters with Ranger Suarez (5-3. 1.04 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a short -110 road favorite and Philadelphia a + 100 home dog. The public sees a toss-up between two evenly matched teams and doesn't know who to back. But pros seem to be leaning on the surging Phillies, as we've seen Philadelphia flip from a + 100 dog to -108 home favorite. Short home favorites -135 or less coming off a win are 127-95 (57.2%) this season, winning roughly + 12 units. The Phillies are 32-21 at home. The Mets are 23-33 on the road. The Mets are just 12-22 against lefties. The Phillies are 40-34 against righties.

8:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (47-63) at Colorado Rockies (49-61)

The Rockies took care of business in last night's series opener, crushing the Marlins 14-2 as -170 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Miami hands the ball to newly acquired lefty Jesus Luzardo (1-0, 5.40 ERA) and Colorado counters with fellow southpaw Austin Gomber (8-6, 4.04 ERA). This line opened with the Rockies listed as a -142 home favorite and the Marlins a + 132 road dog. Sharps are riding the red-hot Rockies, steaming Colorado up from -142 to -155. Non-division home favorites are 354-222 (61.5%) this season. Sweet spot non-division home favorites (between -150 and -175) are 80-41 (66.1%). Colorado is 36-21 at home this season. Miami is just 20-36 on the road. Colorado is 18-14 against lefties. Miami is 12-22 against lefties. Colorado is 17-7 as a favorite. Miami is 29-46 as a dog. The Rockies will rely on their bats once again. Colorado is hitting .247, which ranks 8th-best in MLB. Miami is hitting .235, which ranks 21st. We could be looking at another higher scoring game. The Coors Field total is 10.5 with the over juiced to -120. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on

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