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Saturday MLB Sharp Report (7-10)

July 10, 2021 02:13 AM

Today, the weekend kicks off with 16 MLB games and UFC 264: Poirier vs McGregor. For extensive Saturday betting analysis be sure to join Brady Kannon and myself LIVE on The Lombardi Line from 10 a.m.-noon ET. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and updating the top lines moves across all the major sports. We'll be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for three MLB games today...

4:05 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (42-45) at San Francisco Giants (55-32)

The Giants took Friday night's series opener 5-3, cashing as -145 home favorites. In this afternoon's rematch, Washington hands the ball to veteran lefty Jon Lester (2-3, 5.34 ERA) and San Francisco counters with righty Anthony DeSclafani (9-3, 2.84 ERA). This line opened with the Giants listed as a hefty -180 home favorite and the Nationals a + 165 road dog. Sharps aren't scared off by the big chalk number and have steamed San Francisco up from -180 to -200. Teams receiving 15-cents or more of steam coming off a win are 113-67 (63%) this season. Non-division home favorites are 297-180 (62%). The Giants have performed particularly well in this spot, going 22-7 (76%) as home favorites. San Francisco is 34-16 as a favorite. Washington is 15-32 as a dog. The Nats are -7 in run differential. The Giants are + 108. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. The total opened at 9 and wiseguy under money has dropped the line to 8.5. The Nats are one of the best under teams in MLB (53-31 to the under). 

4:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (43-44) at Miami Marlins (38-49)

The Braves shut out the Marlins 5-0 in last night's series opener, winning as -150 road favorites. In this afternoon's rematch, Atlanta starts lefty Max Fried (5-5, 4.66 ERA) and Miami taps fellow southpaw Trevor Rogers (7-5, 2.22 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a short -115 road favorite and the Marlins a + 105 home dog. The public is hammering the Braves at this short price. However, despite this lopsided betting the line has moved down to a pick'em (-105 both sides). This signals some sharp reverse line movement buying low on Miami to even up the series. There also appears to be some over liability as the total of 7 is juiced up -115 to the over. The Marlins are 21-20 at home this season. The Braves are 19-22 on the road. Miami leads the season series 6-5. 

10:10 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies (38-51) at San Diego Padres (53-38)

The Padres won last night's series opener 4-2, taking care of business as -195 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Colorado starts righty German Marquez (7-6, 3.59 ERA) and the Padres send out righty Joe Musgrove (5-6, 2.97 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a -165 home favorite and the Rockies a + 145 road dog. Pros and Joes seem to be in agreement here, as we've seen lopsided chalk action steam San Diego up from -165 to -175. Home favorites off a win are 306-184 (62%) this season. The Padres also have value as a favorite with a low total (7.5). Historically, low totals have benefited favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. The Rockies have become somewhat of an auto-fade on the road. Colorado is 7-34 as a visitor, by far the worst record in MLB. San Diego is 45-26 as a favorite. Colorado is 24-44 as a dog. The Padres are 38-31 against righties. The Rockies are 25-39 against righties. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on

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