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Saturday MLB Sharp Report (6-12)

June 12, 2021 07:57 AM

Today the weekend kicks off with 16 MLB games, 1 NBA playoff game and, last but not least, UFC 263: Adesanya vs Vettori. For extensive Saturday betting analysis be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m. ET to 12-noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and updating the top lines moves and late sharp action across all the major sports. We'll also check in with our good friend Thomas Gable at The Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several Saturday MLB games...

4:05 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (33-30) at Philadelphia Phillies (30-31)

Both of these Interleague foes are coming off successful series, with the Yankees taking two of three from the Twins and the Phillies taking two of three against the Braves. In this afternoon's opener, the Yankees send out righty Jameson Taillon (1-4, 5.09 ERA) and the Phillies start righty Vince Velasquez (2-1, 4.33 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -126 road favorite and Philadelphia a 116 home dog. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short moneyline price with the Yankees. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen New York tumble from -126 to -118. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the home dog Phillies ( 116 to 108). The Phillies have value as a dog off a win, a home dog and a dog with a high total (9.5). Also, Interleague home teams with line moves in their favor have gone 47-25 (65%) this season). Pros also appear to be leaning on the under. The total is listed at 9.5 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall to 9. The Yankees have been a profitable under team this season, going 37-26. The Phillies are down the middle (30-30-1).

4:07 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (30-32) at Oakland Athletics (38-27)

These non-division foes have split the first two games of the series. The Royals won the opener 6-1 as 135 road dogs and then the Athletics bounced back with a 4-3 win on Friday, cashing as -130 home favorites. In today's rematch, Kansas City hands the ball to Jackson Kowar (0-1, 54.00 ERA) and Oakland counters with fellow righty James Kaprielian (2-1, 3.08 ERA). This line opened with the Athletics listed as a -142 home favorite and the Royals a 131 road dog. Sharps aren't outthinking themselves on this one. They're backing the better team at home with a big starting pitcher advantage, as wiseguys have steamed the A's up from -142 to -152. Oakland falls in the "sweet spot" for non-division home favorites (-150 to -175). These teams have gone 40-19 (68%) this season. Oakland is 27-15 as a favorite this season. The Royals are 15-23 as a dog. The A's are 9 in run differential and 20-18 at home. The Royals are -19 in run differential and 14-17 on the road. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game in this one. The total opened at 8.5 and pros immediately hit the over, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the total up to 9. The forecast calls for low 70s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to right center. 

4:10 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies (25-39) at Cincinnati Reds (30-31)

The Reds dominated the Rockies in last night's series opener, winning 11-5 as hefty -195 home favorites. In this afternoon's rematch, the Rockies start veteran righty German Marquez (4-5, 3.91 ERA) and the Reds give the ball to veteran lefty Wade Miley (5-4, 2.96 ERA). This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a short -135 home favorite and Colorado a 125 road dog. The public is riding the Reds, expecting another easy win from a favorite at home with a superior record. However, we've seen Cincinnati fall from -135 to -125. This indicates wiseguy money buying low on the road dog Rockies ( 125 to 115). The Rockies have value as a road dog with a high total and short dog with a line move in their favor. Colorado is just 16-31 versus righties this season but is actually 9-8 versus lefties. The total is 9 and some books are juicing up the over slightly to -115, indicating some over liability. The Reds have been one of the best over teams in baseball (36-22-3). The over is 20-9-1 at Great American Ballpark, making it the second most profitable over park behind Angel Stadium (23-11). 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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