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Saturday MLB Sharp Report (5-8)

May 8, 2021 02:09 AM

Today kicks off with a loaded betting slate featuring 15 MLB games, 7 NBA games and 14 NHL games, plus UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs Rodriguez. 

For extensive Saturday betting analysis, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and updating the top lines moves and late sharp action across all the major sports. We'll also be joined by Thomas Gable at The Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several Saturday MLB games.

1:05 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (13-15) at New York Yankees (16-16)

The Nats crushed the Yankees 11-4 in Friday night's Interleague series opener, cashing as + 160 road dogs. In this afternoon's rematch, the Nats give the ball to ace Max Scherzer (2-2, 2.54 ERA) while the Yankees counter with veteran righty Corey Kluber (2-2, 3.03 ERA). This line opened with the Yankees listed as a short -115 home favorite and the Nats a + 105 road dog. The public is rushing to the window to back Scherzer as a rare plus money dog. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen New York move from -115 to -125. This signals respected money fading the trendy dog Nats and buying low on the Yankees as a short contrarian favorite at home.  So far this season, Interleague teams that see line movement in their favor have gone 28-17 (62.2%). We've also seen some under money show up. The total is 8 with the under juiced to -115. The forecast at Yankee Stadium calls for mid 50s with wind blowing in right right center at 5-10 MPH. Interleague unders are 26-20 (57%) this season. Both of these teams have been profitable to the under this season, with the Yankees 19-13 to the under and the Nats 17-10-1 to the under. 

4:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (11-19) at Detroit Tigers (9-23)

The Twins took last night's AL Central series opener 7-3, winning as -140 road favorites. In this afternoon's rematch, the Twins start ace Jose Berrios (3-2, 3.58 ERA) and the Tigers give the ball to righty Jose Urena (1-4, 3.53 ERA). This line opened with the Twins listed as hefty -175 road favorites and the Tigers a + 160 home dog. Sharps don't seem to be worried by the big price and have backed the Twins, driving this line up from -175 to -185. Minnesota has value as a team receiving 15+  cents or more and are coming off a win (43-33, 57% this season).The Twins are also a big favorite with a low total (8). Historically, low totals have benefited favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the "better" team. The Twins will look to lean on their bats in this one. Minnesota is hitting .238, which ranks 9th in MLB. The Tigers are hitting .207, which ranks 29th. The Twins are + 2 in run differential this season. The Tigers are -72, worst in baseball. These teams have played four games so far this season. The Twins are 3-1. 

7:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (16-15) at Houston Astros (17-15)

The Astros took care of business in Friday's series opener, crushing the Jays 10-4 as -140 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Jays start lefty Steven Matz (4-2, 4.78 ERA) and the Astros counter with righty Cristian Javier (3-0, 1.75 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -135 home favorite and Toronto a + 125 road dog. Big money seems to be backing the Astros to make it two in a row as we've seen Houston get bet up from -135 to -145. The Astros have value as a non-division favorite with a line move in their favor. Since the 2018 season, the Astros have gone 96-53 (64.4%) against left-handed starting pitchers. The Astros are + 34 in run differential this season. The Jays are + 24. Toronto is 9-11 on the road. Houston is 8-7 at home. 

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