Saturday MLB Sharp Report (4-17)

April 17, 2021 01:01 AM

Today, we have 16 MLB games, 6 NBA games and 12 NHL games, plus UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Gastelum. For extensive Saturday betting analysis be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and updating the top lines moves and late sharp action across all the major sports. We'll also be joined by Thomas Gable from the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several Saturday MLB games.

1:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (6-8) at New York Yankees (5-8)

The Rays came up huge for dog bettors in Friday night's series opener, upsetting the Yankees 8-2 as + 145 road dogs. The win snapped a three-game losing skid for the Rays. It marked the third straight loss for the Yankees, who now sit in last place in the AL East. In this afternoon's rematch, the Rays start ace Tyler Glasnow (1-0, 0.46 ERA) while the Yankees counter with lefty Jordan Montgomery (1-0, 3.27 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a short -125 road favorite and the Yankees a + 110 home dog. Despite facing Tampa's ace, sharp money seems to be buying low on New York to get it down at home, as the Yankees have moved from + 110 to + 102. The Yankees match several profitable betting systems, including a divisional dog and a dog with a line move in their favor (10% ROI this season). Also, home dogs who made the playoffs last year are 11% ROI this season. Some of New York's underlying metrics are better than Tampa's, including batting average (.231 vs .220) and ERA (3.33 vs 4.85).

6:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (8-5) at Miami Marlins (6-7)

The Marlins took last night's series opener 4-1, cashing as + 125 home dogs. After opening the season 1-6 but have since gone 5-1. In tonight's second game, the Giants send out Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 2.70 ERA) and the Marlins give the ball to ace Sandy Alcantara (0-1, 2.45 ERA). This line opened with Miami listed as a -124 home favorite. The public looks at both team's won loss record and says give me the plus money with the Giants. However, respected money has raced to the window to lay the chalk with red-hot Miami, pushing the Fish up to -130. Some shops are inching further to -135. The Marlins have value as a "fade the trendy dog" contrarian favorite in a low total game (8). Low totals historically benefit favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored makes it more likely to come from the "better" team. Miami will lean on their superior bats in this one. The Marlins are hitting .239, which ranks 12th in MLB. The Giants are hitting .207, the 4th-worst in baseball. 

9:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (6-7) at Seattle Mariners (9-5)

The Mariners came from behind to win Friday's series opener 6-5 as + 100 home dogs. These two teams continue to trend in completely opposite directions. The Astors have now lost six straight games while the streaking Mariners are 6-1 in their last seven games. In tonight's rematch, the Astros start veteran Zack Greinke (1-1, 4.08 ERA) and the Mariners counter with righty Chris Flexen (1-0, 4.50 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -136 road favorite and the Mariners a + 125 home dog. Pros aren't outthinking themselves and have gotten down on the red-hot Mariners at plus money, dropping Seattle from + 125 to + 120. Seattle has value as a dog off a win, a dog with a line move in their favor and a divisional dog. Sharps also seem to be leaning in a higher-scoring game. The total is 8 with the over juiced to -115. Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with Houston 9-4 and Seattle 9-5. 


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