Saturday College Football Week 9 Sharp Report

October 29, 2022 12:07 AM
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3:30 p.m. ET: Oklahoma State at Kansas State (-1.5, 56)

Oklahoma State (6-1, ranked 9th) is coming off a 41-34 win over Texas, winning outright as 6.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, Kansas State (5-2, ranked 22nd) just lost to TCU 38-28, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Oklahoma State listed as a short 1-point road favorite. The public is shocked this line is so low and they're rushing to the window to back Oklahoma State, who has a better record and higher ranking. However, despite 74% of bets backing Oklahoma State, we've actually seen this line flip to Kansas State -1.5 at home. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the home team, with pros backing the Wildcats and fading the trendy dog Cowboys. We've also seen some respected money hit the under, dropping the total from 57.5 to 56. This is notable because 93% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell. This signals sharp wiseguy under money. 

 

3:30 p.m. ET: Cincinnati at UCF (-1, 55.5)

Cincinnati (6-1, ranked 20th) has won six straight games and just beat SMU 29-27 but failed to cover as 3.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, UCF (5-2) just had their four-game win streak snapped with a 34-13 loss to East Carolina, losing outright as 5.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to take. However, we've seen this line flip to UCF -1 at home. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are split. So we know this dog-to-favorite move to UCF was driven by smart money. UCF is only receiving 50% of bets but 84% of money, a massive sharp bet discrepancy. UCF also has fishy buy-low value as an unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent. The total has dipped slightly from 56 to 55.5. The forecast calls for low 80s with 10 MPH winds. UCF is 5-2 to the under this season.

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Ole Miss (-2, 55) at Texas A&M

Ole Miss (7-1, ranked 15th) is coming off their first loss of the season, falling to LSU 45-20 and losing outright as a road pick'em play. Meanwhile, Texas A&M (3-4) has lost three straight games and just lost to South Carolina 30-24, losing outright as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Ole Miss listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with Ole Miss, who is ranked and has a far better record. However, despite 81% of bets laying the points with Ole Miss, we've seen the Rebels fall from -3 to -2. This indicates sharp action on Texas A&M, with wiseguys grabbing the points with the home dog. Texas A&M has buy-low value as an unranked conference dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. The Aggies also have value as a super contrarian dog (19% of bets) in a heavily bet primetime game. 

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A Numbers Game: We talk about bankroll management being important, but that doesn’t always mean just unit size. Think of your betting like a pie chart. Split up your money correctly for which sports you do best with. View more tips.

Follow The Money: Back teams, players and coaches that the market has trouble gauging. Like Heinicke who is 11-1 ATS. View more tips.
 
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Matt Youmans: North Carolina +8 vs Clemson. View more picks.

Wes Reynolds: Purdue +17 vs. Michigan. View more picks.
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