3:30 p.m. ET: Ole Miss at LSU (-1, 64.5)
Ole Miss (7-0) is undefeated and ranked 7th in the country. The Rebels are coming off a 48-34 win over Auburn, although they failed to cover as 15.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, LSU (5-2) is unranked and just beat Florida 45-35, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. This line opened with Ole Miss listed as a 1-point road favorite. The public is happy to back Ole Miss, who is undefeated and ranked. However, despite receiving 65% of bets, Ole Miss has flipped from a 1-point favorite to a 1-point dog. In other words, the line has flipped toward LSU despite the fact that the Tigers are only getting 35% of bets. This signals sharp reverse line movement on LSU. The Tigers have "fishy" sharp value as an unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent.
3:30 p.m. ET: Texas (-6, 60) at Oklahoma State
Texas (5-2) is ranked 20th and just edged Iowa State 24-21 but failed to cover as 15.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Oklahoma State (5-1) is ranked 11th and just lost to TCU 43-40 but covered as 5-point road dogs. This line opened with Texas listed as a 3-point road favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is Texas favored if they have the worse ranking and are on the road? Despite 68% of bets backing Oklahoma State, we've seen Texas move from -3 up to -6. This signals sharp wiseguy money laying the points with contrarian favorite Texas, with pros fading the trendy dog. One notable edge for Texas comes on defense, allowing 18 PPG compared to 28 PPG for Oklahoma State. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 64 to 60. The forecast calls for 20 MPH winds.
8 p.m. ET: Kansas State at TCU (-3.5, 54.5)
Kansas State (5-1) is ranked 17th and just beat Iowa State 10-9, pushing as 1-point road favorites. On the other hand, TCU (6-0) is undefeated and ranked 8th. TCU is coming off a 43-30 win over Oklahoma State but failed to cover as 5-point home favorites. This line opened with TCU listed as a 5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with TCU at home. However, we've seen this line fall from TCU -5 to -3,5, indicating sharp money grabbing road dog Kansas State plus the points. Kansas State is only receiving 47% of bets but 66% of money, a sharp bet vs dollar discrepancy in their favor. The Wildcats also have value as a short road dog 4 or less (roughly 54% ATS over the past decade). Kansas State will lean on their defense, allowing just 17 PPG compared to 27 PPG for TCU. Pros have also steamed the under, dropping the total from 58.5 to 54.5. The forecast calls for 20 MPH winds.