Saturday College Football Week 7 Sharp Report

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12 p.m. ET: Kansas (5-1, ranked 19th) at Oklahoma (3-3)

These Big 12 rivals are on opposite ends of the conference standings. Kansas just lost their first game of the season, falling to TCU 38-31 and pushing as 7-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Oklahoma started 3-0 but has since lost three straight. The Sooners just got embarrassed by Texas 49-0, failing to cover as 7.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 7-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this line speaks volumes. Why on Earth is unranked Oklahoma a 7-point favorite if they've played so poorly lately and Kansas is ranked with a far better record? If it looks fishy, there is usually a reason behind it. Currently 85% of bets are grabbing the points with Kansas, yet we've seen Oklahoma move from -7 to -8.5. Why are the oddsmakers moving the line to hand out additional points to public Kansas backers when they're already hammering the Jayhawks to begin with? This fishy line movement signals wiseguy money laying the points with Oklahoma in a super contrarian buy-low bounce back spot. 

 

3:30 p.m. ET: Alabama (6-0, ranked 3rd) at Tennessee (5-0, ranked 6th)

This SEC clash of undefeated and highly ranked teams is the most heavily bet game on Saturday's slate. Alabama is coming off a 24-20 win over Texas A&M but failed to cover as 24.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Tennessee just destroyed LSU 40-13, easily covering as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Alabama listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public is rushing to window to grab Tennessee plus the points. However, despite 74% of bets backing the Vols, we've actually seen this line move further to Alabama -7 to -8.5. Some shops are even up to Alabama -9. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Crimson Tide with pros laying the points with the contrarian favorite and fading trendy dog Tennessee. Alabama is only receiving 26% of bets but 37% of money, a sharp +11% bet discrepancy. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 56% ATS over the past decade. 

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Mississippi State (5-1, ranked 16th) at Kentucky (4-2, ranked 22nd)

These SEC opponents are trending in opposite directions. Mississippi State has won three-straight games and just crushed Arkansas 40-17, easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Kentucky has lost two-straight games and just fell to South Carolina 24-14, losing outright as 4.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Mississippi State listed as a 6-point road favorite. Currently 60% of bets are laying the points with the Bulldogs. However, we've seen Mississippi State fall from -6 to -4. Some shops are even down to 3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Kentucky, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog Wildcats. Kentucky is only getting 40% of bets but 60% of money, a sharp +20% bet discrepancy. Kentucky also has value as a contrarian conference dog with a line move in their favor. 

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