Saturday College Football Week 6 Sharp Report

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12 p.m. ET: Tennessee (4-0, ranked 8th) at LSU (4-1, ranked 25th)

Both of these SEC rivals are ranked and riding win streaks. Undefeated Tennessee just took down Florida 38-33 but failed to cover as 11-point home favorites. Meanwhile, LSU has won four straight after dropping the season opener to Florida State. LSU is coming off a 21-17 win over Auburn but failed to cover as 8-point road favorites. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the short chalk with Tennessee, who is undefeated and also ranked much higher than LSU. However, despite receiving 74% of bets, Tennessee has fallen from -4 to -3. Some shops are even juicing up the LSU +3 to -115, signaling a possible further drop down to 2.5. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on LSU, with wiseguys buying low on the home dog plus the points. This is a contrast in styles. Tennessee has the better offense (559 yards per game vs 444) while LSU has the stingier defense (294 yards allowed vs 407). 

 

12 p.m. ET: Louisville (2-3) at Virginia (2-3)

These ACC rivals are looking to bounce back from losses in their quest to return to .500. Louisville just fell to Boston College 34-33, losing outright as 13.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Virginia has lost two straight and just got rolled by Duke 38-17, failing to cover as 2-point road dogs. This line opened with Louisville listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Louisville. However, despite 81% of bets backing the Cardinals, we've seen Louisville fall from -4 to -2.5. Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they're already pounding Louisville to begin with? Because sharps bought low on Virginia plus the points, driving line movement toward the unpopular home dog. Virginia is only receiving 19% of bets but 49% of money, a notable 30% smart money discrepancy in their favor. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 51.5 to 50.5. Virginia is 4-0-1 to the under. Louisville is 3-2 to the under. 

 

3:30 p.m. ET. Utah (4-1, ranked 11th) at UCLA (5-0, ranked 18th). 

Both of these Pac 12 rivals are ranked and sit near the top of the conference standings. Utah has won four straight after dropping the season opener to Florida. The Utes just rolled Oregon State 42-16, easily covering as 10.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, UCLA is undefeated and just took down Washington 40-32, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Utah listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. Early money laid the points with Utah, driving the line from Utes -3.5 to -4.5. But ever since we've seen steady buyback on UCLA, dropping the line back down to 3.5 where it opened. Essentially all late money is taking the points with UCLA at home. The total has risen slightly from 64 to 64.5. Both teams are averaging roughly 42 PPG, making them two of the most potent offenses in the conference. UCLA is 4-1 to the over. Utah is 3-2 to the over. The over is receiving 64% of bets but 79% of money, a sharp over bet discrepancy. 

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