Saturday College Football Week 4 Sharp Report


12 p.m. ET: Baylor (2-1) at Iowa State (3-0)

Both of these Big 12 rivals are coming off blowout victories. Baylor is ranked 17th and just crushed Texas State 42-7, covering as 30-point home favorites. Meanwhile, unranked Iowa State just brushed aside Ohio 43-10, covering as 20-point home favorites. This line opened with Baylor listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Currently 60% of bets are riding with Baylor. However, despite this betting support we've seen the line completely flip to Iowa State -2.5. This signals sharp dog-to-favorite reverse line movement on Iowa State. The Cyclones also have rare contrarian value as an unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent. After all, shouldn't the 17th-ranked team in the country be favored over an unranked opponent? If it doesn't make sense, there is usually a reason for it. Pros are fading the trendy dog and backing Iowa State at home. The Cyclones are -145 on the moneyline. 


3:30 p.m. ET: Notre Dame (1-2) at North Carolina (3-0)

After starting the season 0-2, Notre Dame bounced back with a 24-17 win over California, although the Irish failed to cover as 13.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, undefeated North Carolina just beat Georgia State 35-28, pushing as 7-point road favorites. This line opened with Notre Dame listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on North Carolina, flipping the Tar Heels from a 1.5-point home dog to a 2.5-point home favorite. North Carolina holds a big edge on offense, averaging 51 PPG compared to just 18 PPG for Notre Dame. North Carolina also enjoys a rest advantage, as the Tar Heels are coming off a bye while Notre Dame played last week. North Carolina is -135 on the moneyline. We've also seen a ton of respected money hit the under, steaming the total down from 60 to 55. The under is only receiving 35% of bets but 59% of money, signaling "low bets, higher dollars" sharp under bet discrepancy. 


9:30 p.m. ET: USC (3-0) at Oregon State (3-0)

This late night PAC-12 showdown features the sharpest line move of the day. USC is ranked 7th and just crushed Fresno State 45-17, easily covering as 11.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Oregon State just rolled Montana State 68-28, covering as 16.5-point home favorites. This line opened with USC listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public is pounding USC to the tune of 89% of bets. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen USC fall from 7 to 5.5. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on Oregon State, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. The Beavers have value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent as well as a super contrarian dog in a heavily bet late night game. We could also be looking at a high scoring affair, as the total has risen from 68 to 70.5. The over is only receiving 43% bets but 53% money, signaling a sharp over bet discrepancy. Both teams are 2-1 to the over this season.

back to news


Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers


The Lombardi Line: Pay attention to the offseason moves in baseball, futures prices are changing. As teams build their roster through free agency and trades, monitor the futures markets.View more tips

The Greg Peterson Experience: Fade bad NFL teams on lookahead lines, because they get steamed after another bad performance. View more tips



Paul Howard: Seahawks Win NFC West +350. View more picks

Gill Alexander: Bengals (-6) vs. Browns. View more picks




Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All