Saturday College Football Week 4 Sharp Report

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12 p.m. ET: Baylor (2-1) at Iowa State (3-0)

Both of these Big 12 rivals are coming off blowout victories. Baylor is ranked 17th and just crushed Texas State 42-7, covering as 30-point home favorites. Meanwhile, unranked Iowa State just brushed aside Ohio 43-10, covering as 20-point home favorites. This line opened with Baylor listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Currently 60% of bets are riding with Baylor. However, despite this betting support we've seen the line completely flip to Iowa State -2.5. This signals sharp dog-to-favorite reverse line movement on Iowa State. The Cyclones also have rare contrarian value as an unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent. After all, shouldn't the 17th-ranked team in the country be favored over an unranked opponent? If it doesn't make sense, there is usually a reason for it. Pros are fading the trendy dog and backing Iowa State at home. The Cyclones are -145 on the moneyline. 

 

3:30 p.m. ET: Notre Dame (1-2) at North Carolina (3-0)

After starting the season 0-2, Notre Dame bounced back with a 24-17 win over California, although the Irish failed to cover as 13.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, undefeated North Carolina just beat Georgia State 35-28, pushing as 7-point road favorites. This line opened with Notre Dame listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on North Carolina, flipping the Tar Heels from a 1.5-point home dog to a 2.5-point home favorite. North Carolina holds a big edge on offense, averaging 51 PPG compared to just 18 PPG for Notre Dame. North Carolina also enjoys a rest advantage, as the Tar Heels are coming off a bye while Notre Dame played last week. North Carolina is -135 on the moneyline. We've also seen a ton of respected money hit the under, steaming the total down from 60 to 55. The under is only receiving 35% of bets but 59% of money, signaling "low bets, higher dollars" sharp under bet discrepancy. 

 

9:30 p.m. ET: USC (3-0) at Oregon State (3-0)

This late night PAC-12 showdown features the sharpest line move of the day. USC is ranked 7th and just crushed Fresno State 45-17, easily covering as 11.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Oregon State just rolled Montana State 68-28, covering as 16.5-point home favorites. This line opened with USC listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public is pounding USC to the tune of 89% of bets. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen USC fall from 7 to 5.5. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on Oregon State, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. The Beavers have value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent as well as a super contrarian dog in a heavily bet late night game. We could also be looking at a high scoring affair, as the total has risen from 68 to 70.5. The over is only receiving 43% bets but 53% money, signaling a sharp over bet discrepancy. Both teams are 2-1 to the over this season.

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The Lombardi Line: Pay attention to the offseason moves in baseball, futures prices are changing. As teams build their roster through free agency and trades, monitor the futures markets.View more tips

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