Saturday College Football Week 10 Sharp Report

November 4, 2022 11:57 PM
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12 p.m. ET: Kentucky at Missouri (PK, 40.5)

Kentucky (5-3) has lost three of their last four game and just got rolled by Tennessee 44-6, failing to cover as 10.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Missouri (4-4) has won two straight games and just beat South Carolina 23-10, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Kentucky listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with Kentucky, who is receiving 80% of bets. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen the line tumble down to a pick'em. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cash with Kentucky, when they're already betting them to begin with? If it looks too good to be true, it usually is. This sharp reverse line movement signals respected money backing Missouri at home. We've also seen the total plummet from 44 to 40.5. Weather is a big reason why. The forecast calls for low 40s, rain and 15-20 MPH winds. 

 

3:30 p.m. ET: Tennessee at Georgia (-9, 65)

This SEC showdown of top ranked unbeaten teams is the most heavily bet game of the day. Tennessee (8-0) is ranked 1st in the country and just beat Kentucky 44-6, easily covering as 10.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Georgia (8-0) is ranked 3rd and just beat Florida 42-20, failing to cover as 23-point home favorites. This line opened with Georgia listed as an 8-point home favorite. The public is shocked that the top ranked team in the country is such a big underdog and they're rushing to the window to grab the points with Tennessee. However, despite 82% of bets taking Tennessee, this line has moved further to Georgia -8 to -8.5 or even -9 at some shops. This signals sharp reverse line movement on contrarian favorite Georgia, with pros laying the points and fading the trendy dog Volunteers. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 55% ATS over the past decade. 

 

3:30 p.m. ET: Oklahoma State at Kansas (-1, 63) 

Oklahoma State (6-2) is ranked 18th in the country but has lost two of their last three games, including a 48-0 loss to Kansas State last week, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Kansas (5-3) is unranked and has lost three straight, most recently falling to Baylor 35-23 and failing to cover as 10.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Oklahoma State listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is happy to the lay the short spread with Oklahoma State, who is ranked and has a better record. However, despite 66% of bets backing Oklahoma State, we've seen this line flip to Kansas -1 at home. This signals heavy wiseguy action on Kansas. The Jayhawks have value as a sharp "dog to favorite" line move and fishy unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent. Kansas is only receiving 34% of bets but 47% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. The Jayhawks also have a rest vs tired advantage as they are coming off a bye while Oklahoma State played last week. 

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