Saturday College Basketball Sharp Report

baylor
Today marks another huge College Basketball Saturday with roughly 145 games on tap. On days like this with so many games to choose from, it's important for bettors to remain fearless but disciplined. Having too many bets can be the quickest way to assume added risk and give back your bankroll to the books. Instead of searching for games to bet on, think about working your way backwards, first eliminating games that you perceive to lack value. It's oftentimes a better and more efficient way to narrowing down your plays. 
 
In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of games receiving sharp action today from respected bettors... 
 
 
6 p.m. ET: Wisconsin at Rutgers
 
These Big 10 rivals are trending in opposite directions. Wisconsin (22-5 SU, 15-12 ATS) is ranked 13th , has won three straight and just squeaked by Minnesota 68-67, failing to cover as 5-point road favorites. On the flip side, Rutgers (16-11 SU, 13-14 ATS) is unranked, has lost two straight and just fell to Michigan 71-62, failing to cover as 5-point road dogs. This line opened with Rutgers listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is Rutgers favored if they're unranked and have a far worse win-loss record? The public is hammering Wisconsin plus the points, yet the line has moved further toward Rutgers (-1.5 to -2.5). This indicates pro bettors buying low on Rutgers as a fishy "unranked favorite vs a ranked opponent" play. Rutgers is 13-2 at home this season. Ken Pom has Wisconsin winning by one point (67-66), which means the market is more bullish on Rutgers than the advanced analytics. Rutgers beat Wisconsin 73-65 on February 12th. 
 
 
8 p.m. ET: Kansas at Baylor
 
This primetime clash features a pair of highly ranked Big 12 rivals battling for the top spot in the conference. Kansas (23-4 SU, 13-14 ATS) is ranked 5th and is coming off a 102-83 win over Kansas State, easily covering as 12-point home favorites. Similarly, Baylor (23-5 SU, 14-13-1 ATS) is ranked 10th and just edged Oklahoma State 66-64 in overtime, failing to cover as 5-point home favorites. This line opened with Baylor listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they're rushing to the window to grab the points with trendy dog Kansas. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen several books move further toward Baylor (-3 to -3.5). This signals sharp "fade the trendy dog" action laying the chalk with contrarian favorite Baylor. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is 41-28 ATS (59%) this season. Ken Pom has Baylor winning by four points (78-74). This is a revenge game for Baylor, who got rolled by Kansas 83-59 on February 5th. 
 
 
10 p.m. ET: USC at Oregon
 
This PAC 12 grudge match is likely to be the most heavily bet late game of the night. USC (24-4 SU, 13-15 ATS) is ranked 16th, has won five straight and just outlasted Oregon State 94-91 in double overtime, failing to cover as 10.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, Oregon (18-10 SU, 11-17 ATS) is unranked and just 2-3 over their last five games, although the Ducks are coming off a big 68-63 win over UCLA, cashing outright as 2.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Oregon listed as a 2-point home favorite. The public is happy to grab the points with USC, who is ranked and has a far better record. However, pros have laid the chalk with Oregon, driving the Ducks up from -2 to -3.5. Ken Pom has Oregon winning by one point (72-71). The Ducks are -165 on the moneyline. These teams met back on January 15th and Oregon won 79-69. 
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