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Saturday College Basketball Sharp Report


1 p.m. ET: Miami at Syracuse

This ACC showdown features two teams trending in opposite directions. Miami (21-9 SU, 16-14 ATS) is 5-2 over their last seven games and just took down Boston College 81-70, covering as 4-point road favorites. On the flip side, Syracuse (15-15 SU, 14-16 ATS) is riding a three-game losing streak and just fell to North Carolina 88-79 in overtime, failing to cover as 8.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Syracuse listed as a short 1-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. If Miami has a far better won-loss record and is playing much better recently, then why is Syracuse the favorite? Something feels fishy here. The public is rushing to the window to back Miami, yet we've seen Syracuse move from -1 to -1.5 or even -2 at some shops. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the home favorite. Syracuse has an advantage on the boards (36 RPG by 30 RPG). Syracuse is 11-4 at home this season. Ken Pom has Syracuse winning by one point (80-79). This is a revenge spot for Syracuse, who lost to Miami 88-87 on January 5th. 


2 p.m. ET: TCU at West Virginia

This is the regular season finale for both Big 12 opponents. TCU (19-10 SU, 17-9-3 ATS) went 4-6 down the stretch and just fell to Kansas 72-68, covering as 12-point road dogs. Meanwhile, West Virginia (14-16 SU, 12-18 ATS) has dropped seven straight games and just fell to Oklahoma 72-59, failing to cover as 5-point road dogs. This line opened with West Virginia listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to back the dog and fade slumping West Virginia. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line move further toward the Mountaineers (-1.5 to -2.5). This signals respected money laying the points with contrarian favorite West Virginia and fading trendy dog TCU. West Virginia is 11-5 at home this season. TCU is 4-5 on the road. Ken Pom has West Virginia winning by one point (68-67). The Mountaineers are -140 on the moneyline. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 138 to 136.5. This is a revenge game for West Virginia, who lost to TCU 77-67 back on February 21st. 


4 p.m. ET: Oklahoma at Kansas State

These Big 12 rivals are trending in opposite directions. Oklahoma (16-14 SU, 14-16 ATS) has won two straight and just beat West Virginia 72-59, easily covering as 5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Kansas State (14-15 SU, 16-12-1 ATS) has dropped four straight games and just fell to Texas Texas 73-68 but covered as 13-point road dogs. This line opened with Kansas State listed as a short 1-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they're backing trendy dog Oklahoma. However, this line has moved from Kansas State -1 to -2.5, signaling pro money buying low on the home team and laying the chalk. Kansas State is 9-6 at home this season. Oklahoma is 2-8 on the road. Ken Pom has Kansas State winning by two points (68-66). This is a revenge play for Kansas State, who lost to Oklahoma 71-69 on January 1st. 


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