Saturday CFB Week 9 Sharp Report

michigan

 

Today the weekend kicks off with Week 9 of the College Football season, plus 11 NBA games, 10 NHL games and Game 4 of the World Series. Let's discuss where the smart is flowing for several key College Football games today...

 

12 p.m. ET: Michigan at Michigan State

Michigan (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) is ranked 6th overall and just waxed Northwestern 33-7, covering as 23.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Michigan State (7-0 SU, 5-1-1 ATS) is ranked 8th and coming off a bye. The Spartans edged Indiana 20-15 their last time out, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Michigan listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public sees two undefeated teams and says give me the points with home dog Michigan State. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line move from Michigan -3.5 to -4. It even reached -4.5 at times throughout the week. Essentially all liability is on the Wolverines despite the public backing trendy dog Michigan State. This signals wiseguy money backing road contrarian favorite Michigan. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 57% ATS the past decade. 

 

12 p.m. ET: Iowa at Wisconsin

Iowa (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) is ranked 9th in the country and is coming off a bye. The Hawkeyes just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to Purdue 24-7 as 11.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) was left for dead after starting the season 1-3. But now the Badgers have won three straight, including a 30-13 win over Purdue last week, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 3-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this line speaks volumes. If Iowa is the better team and ranked, then why are they getting points? The public is rushing to the window to grab Iowa, yet we've seen the line stay at Wisconsin -3 or even reach -3.5 at some shops. This signals sharp "fade the trendy dog" liability on contrarian favorite Wisconsin. We could also be looking at a low scoring game. The total has fallen from 37 to 36.5. Iowa is 5-2 to the under. Wisconsin is 4-3 to the under. 

 

3:30 p.m. ET: Georgia at Florida

Georgia (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) enters this SEC clash ranked 1st overall in the country. The Bulldogs just beat Kentucky 30-13, although they failed to cover as 21.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Florida (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) is unranked and just fell to LSU 49-42, losing straight up as 12.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Georgia listed as a 14.5-point road favorite. The public sees another easy blowout and is happy to lay the points with Georgia. However, this line has ticked down from 14.5 to 14. This signals some wiseguy money buying low on Florida as a rare big home dog. The Gators are contrarian in a heavily bet game. Unranked home dogs against ranked opponents are 24-18 ATS (57%) this season. 

 

7 p.m. ET: Mississippi at Auburn

Ole Miss (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) is ranked 10th in the country and has won three straight games, most recently beating LSU 31-17, covering as 9-point home favorites. On the flip side, Auburn (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) is ranked 18th and just crushed Arkansas 38-23, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Auburn listed as a 1-point home favorite. The public is jumping all over Ole Miss as a dog due to their higher ranking and better record. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Auburn move from -1 to -3. This indicates respected money laying the points with Auburn. Auburn is also coming off a bye. Ranked home favorites off a bye are roughly 59% ATS the past decade. Both teams can put up points (Ole Miss 41.9 PPG and Auburn 35.4 PPG). The difference comes on defense, where Ole Miss is allowing 28.3 PPG and Auburn just 19.7 PPG. 

 

7 p.m. ET: Kentucky at Mississippi State

Kentucky (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS) is ranked 12th in the country and just hung tough with mighty Georgia, losing 30-13 but covering as 21.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, Mississippi State (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) has won two of their last three games and just crushed Vanderbilt 45-6, easily covering as 20.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Kentucky listed as a 1-point road favorite. Right off the bat, this line seems fishy. If Kentucky has a far better record and is ranked, then why are the Wildcats only laying a point? The public sees an easy win and cover with Kentucky, yet we've seen this line flip toward Mississippi State ( 1 to -1 or -1.5). This indicates sharp "dog to favorite" reverse line movement on Mississippi State. 

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Penn State at Ohio State

Penn State (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) is ranked 20th in the country and has lost two straight, most recently falling to unranked Illinois 20-18 in a 9 OT thriller, losing outright as 24.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Ohio State (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) has won five straight and is ranked 5th. The Buckeyes just crushed Indiana 54-7, easily covering as 21-point home favorites. This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 17-point home favorite. Pros and Joes aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're both laying the points with red-hot Ohio State, steaming the Buckeyes up from -17 to -19.5. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 56% ATS over the past decade. Both teams have stellar defenses (PSU allows 14.71 PPG and OSU 18.57 PPG). The big difference comes on offense, where Ohio State is averaging 49.29 PPG and Penn State just 26.86. 

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