Today the weekend kicks off with Week 6 of the College Football season. For extensive Saturday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by Carl Johnson of the Beau Rivage in Biloxi, Mississippi and Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.
In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several College Football matchups today...
12 p.m. ET: Michigan State at Rutgers
This early Big Ten clash features two teams trending in opposite directions. Michigan State (5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 11th overall. The Spartans just crushed Western Kentucky 48-31 last week, covering as 10.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Rutgers (3-2 SU. 4-1 ATS) started the season 3-0 but has since lost two straight, including a 52-13 loss to Ohio State last week, failing to cover as 15-point home dogs. This line opened with Michigan State listed as a 5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover for the Spartans and is hammering Michigan State. However, this line has actually fallen from 5 to 4.5. This indicates sharp wiseguy money buying low on Rutgers as a short home dog. Conference unranked teams vs ranked opponents are 20-12 ATS (62.5%) this season. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total slightly from 50 to 49.5. The weather could be a factor, with 10-15 MPH winds on tap.
12 p.m. ET: Oklahoma at Texas
The Red River Rivalry returns. This game will be played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas. This Big 12 heavyweight showdown features a pair of ranked teams who can put up points in a hurry. Oklahoma (5-0 SU, 1-4 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 6th. The Sooners just beat Kansas State 37-31, but failed to cover as 12.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Texas (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) has won three straight and is ranked 21st. The Longhorns just edged TCU 32-27, covering as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 3.5-point favorite. The public is down on Oklahoma because they're only 1-4 ATS. As a result, they're loading up on Texas plus the points. This lopsided trendy support has dipped some shops from Oklahoma -3.5 down to -3. Other books are holding firm at -3.5 despite heavy Texas support. This signals a sharp line freeze on Oklahoma with pros fading the trendy dog Longhorns. It looks as though wiseguys are buying low on Oklahoma when they fall to the key number of -3. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 55% ATS over the past decade.
7:30 p.m. ET: Michigan at Nebraska
This primetime Big Ten grudge match is one of the most heavily bet games of the night. Michigan (5-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) enters undefeated and ranked 9th overall. The Wolverines just took down Wisconsin 38-17, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. On the flip side, Nebraska (3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS) is unranked but just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 57-7 thrashing of Northwestern last week, easily covering as 11-point home favorites. This line opened with Michigan listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public can't believe this line is so low and is rushing to the window to lay the short spread with the undefeated Wolverines. However, despite this lopsided betting the line has remained frozen at 3 and even dipped to 2.5 at some shops. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Cornhuskers plus the points. Nebraska is contrarian in a heavily bet game. Unranked teams vs ranked teams are 41-33 ATS (55%) this season. Sharps are also leaning under here, as we've seen the total dip from 52.5 to 49.5. Both teams have been profitable to the under, with Michigan 3-2 and Nebraska 4-2.
More Saturday Moves
Virginia Tech 2 to pick vs Notre Dame
Syracuse 7 to 6 vs Wake Forest
Ohio State -20 to -21.5 vs Maryland
West Virginia 3 to 2.5 at Baylor
Connecticut -2 to -3 at Massachusetts
Virginia 3 to 2.5 at Louisville
Georgia Tech -3 to -4.5 at Duke
Air Force -4 to -5 vs Wyoming
Utah 4 to 3 at USC