Saturday CFB Week 5 Sharp Report

bama1
 
Today the weekend kicks off with Week 5 of the College Football season. For extensive Saturday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by Carl Johnson of the Beau Rivage in Biloxi, Mississippi and Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.  
 
In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several College Football matchups today...
 
 
12 p.m. ET: Michigan at Wisconsin
 
This Big Ten grudge match is one of the most heavily bet early games of the day. Michigan (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) enters undefeated and ranked 14th overall, having just taken down Rutgers 20-13 but failing to cover as 20-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) looks to claw back to .500 after losing to Notre Dame 41-13 last week, losing outright as 6-point favorites. This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 1-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this speaks volumes. If Michigan has a better record and higher ranking, why is Wisconsin the favorite? The public is pounding the Wolverines, yet we've seen Wisconsin move from -1 to -2. This signals sharp "Fade the Trendy Dog" reverse line movement on the contrarian favorite Badgers. Wisconsin has value as a "fishy" unranked favorite vs a ranked opponent. Michigan has been successful running the ball this season (290.8 rush yards per game). Wisconsin's strength is stopping the run (25 yards per game allowed). 
 
 
12 p.m. ET: Arkansas at Georgia
 
This SEC heavyweight battle is generating an enormous handle, the largest of any game on the early slate.  Arkansas (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) is ranked 8th overall and just took down Texas A&M 20-10, winning outright as 4.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, Georgia (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) is ranked 2nd and just demolished Vanderbilt 62-0, easily covering as 36-point road favorites. This line opened with Georgia listed as a 19-point home favorite. Both Pros and Joes think this line is way too high and they've jumped on Arkansas getting big points. This lopsided action has dropped Arkansas from  19 to  16. Arkansas has value as a road conference dog with a line move in their favor. One big variable here: Georgia star quarterback J.T. Daniels is questionable with an oblique injury. If he's ruled out, expect this line to fall even further toward Arkansas. 
 
 
2:30 p.m. ET: Cincinnati at Notre Dame
 
This mid-afternoon showdown features a pair of Top 10 teams looking to stay undefeated. Cincinnati (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) is ranked 7th. The Bearcats are coming off a bye, previously beating Indiana 38-24 and easily covering as 4-point road favorites their last time out. On the other hand, Notre Dame (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) is ranked 9th and just upset Wisconsin 41-13, winning outright as 6-point dogs. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. The public is jumping on Notre Dame as a short home dog, yet we've seen Cincinnati move from -1.5 to -2. This signals sharp wiseguy movement in favor of the Bearcats. Cincinnati has value as a ranked favorite off a bye (roughly 54% ATS last decade). Also, when two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 58% ATS last decade. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game in this one. The total has fallen from 52 to 50. The forecast calls for 10 MPH winds and possibly some rain. 
 
 
3:30 p.m. ET: Mississippi at Alabama
 
This SEC clash features two ranked teams and two Heisman hopefuls in quarterbacks Matt Corral and Bryce Young. Ole Miss (3-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS) is ranked 12th and coming off a bye. In their last game, Ole Miss crushed Tulane 61-21, easily covering at 14-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Alabama (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) is ranked 1st and just destroyed Southern Miss 63-14, covering as 45-point home favorites. This line opened with Alabama listed as a 15.5-point home favorite. Both Pros and Joes think Ole Miss can hang tough and they're grabbing the points with the Rebels, which has dropped Ole Miss from  15.5 to  14.5. Ole Miss has value as a conference road dog and a ranked team off a bye. Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin has had an extra week to game-plan against his former team. We've also seen massive steam to the over, driving the total up from 75 to 79.5. Last year these teams combined for 111 points, with Alabama winning 63-48. 
 
 
More Saturday Moves
Kentucky  8.5 to  7.5 vs Florida
Boston College  16 to  14.5 at Clemson
Penn State -11.5 to -12.5 vs Indiana
Oklahoma -10.5 to -12 at Kansas State
Michigan State -8.5 to -10.5 vs Western Kentucky
Rutgers  16 to  15 vs Ohio State
Auburn  4 to  3 at LSU
Nevada  6 to  5 at Boise State
Arizona State  4 to  3 at UCLA
Oregon State  2.5 to -1.5 vs Washington
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