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Saturday CFB Week 13 Sharp Report

michigan

 

Today the weekend kicks off with Week 13 of the College Football season, plus 8 NBA games, 9 NHL games, and a full College Basketball slate.

One thing to keep an eye out for today in College Football: windy unders. Yesterday we saw windy unders go a perfect 3-0, with Cincinnati-East Carolina, Central Michigan-Eastern Michigan and South Alabama-Coastal Carolina all staying under. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more and the under falls at least a half point, the under is now 48-25 (66%) this season. When it's windy out, it makes it harder on the offense, leading to missed passes, missed kicks and more running the ball which chews up the clock.

Here are today's "windy under" matches

Arkansas State-Texas State Under 62

Temple-Navy Under Under 42.5

Connecticut-Houston Under 54.5

Now let's discuss where the smart is flowing for several key College Football games today...

 

12 p.m. ET: Ohio State at Michigan

This historic Big Ten rivalry renews today with a marquee matchup of top 5 ranked teams. Ohio State (10-1 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) is ranked 2nd in the country and has won nine straight. The Buckeyes just dominated Michigan State 56-7, easily covering as 19.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Michigan (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) is ranked 5th and has won three straight, most recently crushing Maryland 59-18 as 16-point road favorites. This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the high flying Buckeyes, which raised Ohio State up from -7 to -8.5. But since that time we've seen steady buyback on Michigan plus the points, dropping the line back down to 7. All of the late movement is siding with the Wolverines, who are your top contrarian home dog of the day.

 

12 p.m. ET: Florida State at Florida

These non-conference in-state rivals are looking to cap off disappointing seasons with a 6th win and Bowl Game berth. Florida State (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) has won their past two games, most recently taking down Boston College 26-23 as 3-point road dogs. On the flip side, Florida (5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS) started the season 4-2 but has gone just 1-4 since, losing to Missouri 24-23 last week as 9-point road favorites. This line opened with Florida listed as a 2-point home favorite. The public wants nothing to do with the tanking Gators and is happy to grab the points with FSU, who is playing better as of late. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Florida move from -2 to -3, signaling wiseguy money buying low on the Gators at home laying a short spread. Florida will be playing their first game since firing Head Coach Dan Mullen.

 

3:30 p.m. ET: Penn State at Michigan State

This Big Ten showdown features two teams fighting for conference supremacy. Penn State (7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS) is unranked but has won two of their last three games, including a 28-0 win over Rutgers last week as a 14-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Michigan State (9-2 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) is ranked 12th but has last two of their last three games. The Spartans just fell to Ohio State 56-7, failing to cover as 19.5-point road dogs. This line opened at a pick'em. With Michigan State at home, this means Penn State would be slightly favored on a neutral field. We've seen respected money side with the Nittany Lions, pushing Penn State from a pick to a 4-point road favorite. One big reason for the move: Michigan State is expected to be without up to 20 players, including 6-8 starters, due to a combination of injuries and illness.

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