Saturday CFB Week 12 Sharp Report

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Today the weekend kicks off with Week 12 of the College Football season, plus 9 NBA games, 12 NHL games, a full UFC card and 60 College Basketball games. 

As the seasons change from Fall to Winter, we are seeing weather have a bigger impact on totals, specifically wind when it comes to betting unders. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more and the total falls at least a half point, the under is 42-23 (65%) this season. Why is this important? Because wind makes it harder on quarterbacks and kickers, which leads to more running the ball and chewing up the clock. Wind hurts offense, which benefits unders. 

Here are your "Windy Under" system matches for today

TCU-Kansas Under 66.5 to 64.5

Northwestern-Purdue Under 48.5 to 47.5

Akron-Kent Under 75 to 73

FIU-North Texas Under 59.5 to 57.5

Notre Dame-Georgia Tech Under 59.5 to 58

Now let's discuss where the smart is flowing for several key College Football games today...

 

12 p.m. ET: Iowa State at Oklahoma

Both of these Big 12 rivals are looking to bounce back from tough losses. Iowa State (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) has lost two of their last three games and just fell to Texas Tech 41-38, losing outright as 13-point road favorites. Similarly, Oklahoma (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS, ranked 13th) just lost their first game of the season last week, falling to Baylor 27-14 as 4-point home favorites. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 5-point home favorite. The public is all over the Sooners laying the short number, expecting a "get right" win for Oklahoma. However, this line has dipped from 5 to 3.5, signaling some sharp reverse line movement on road dog Iowa State. Short road dogs  4 or less are roughly 54% ATS the past decade. Iowa State also has value as a road unranked conference dog against a ranked opponent.

 

3:30 p.m. ET: SMU at Cincinnati

This American Athletic grudge match features two of the top teams in the conference facing off. SMU (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) just took down Central Florida 55-28, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Cincinnati (10-0 SU, 5-5 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 5th in the nation. The Bearcat just beat South Florida 45-28, but failed to cover as 23.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 12.5-point home favorite. Respected money has pounced on SMU plus the points, dropping the line down from 12.5 to 10. SMU has value as a unranked conference dog against a ranked opponent. The Mustangs also have value as a conference dog who can score (41.6 PPG), which is critical to hang tough or back door cover. Cincinnati is 4-0 over their last four games but 0-4 ATS, failing to cover as double-digit favorites each time. 

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Oregon at Utah

This primetime Pac 12 showdown features a pair of ranked teams fighting for the conference title. Oregon (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) has won five straight and is ranked 3rd in the nation. The Ducks just dismissed Washington State 38-24, covering as 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Utah (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) has won three straight and is ranked 23rd. The Utes just beat Arizona 38-29, although they failed to cover as 24-point road favorites. This line opened with Utah listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public can't believe the Ducks are a dog and they're rushing to the window to grab the points. However, this line has remained frozen at 3 and even hinted at a move up to -3.5. This signals sharp "Fade the Trendy Dog" action on Utah. The Utes also have value as a rare contrarian home favorite in a heavily bet game. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 55% ATS over the past decade. 

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