Saturday CFB Week 11 Sharp Report

missstate

 

Today the weekend kicks off with Week 11 of the College Football season, plus 7 NBA games, 13 NHL games and 60 College Basketball games. 

One system to look out for today is "Windy Unders." When it comes to weather, wind is the biggest affect on a total, more so than temperature, rain, sleet or snow. Wind makes it harder for quarterbacks to throw the ball and leads to missed kicks and running the ball more, which chews up the clock. This is why wind is considered the "best friend" of an under bettor. 

When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is 68-43 (51%) this season. If the wind blows 10 MPH or more and the total falls at least a point, the under is 38-19 (67%). 

Here are the Windy Under system matches for today

Tulane-Tulsa Under 58.5 to 55.5

Temple-Houston Under 53.5 to 52.5

Old Dominion-Florida Atlantic Under 49.5 to 48.5

Appalachian State-South Alabama Under 54 to 52

 

Now let's discuss where the smart is flowing for several key College Football games today...

 

12 p.m. ET: Oklahoma at Baylor

These Big 12 rivals are fighting for the top spot in the conference. Oklahoma (9-0 SU, 4-5 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 4th in the country. The Sooners just beat Texas Tech 52-21, easily covering as 19-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Baylor (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) is ranked 18th but just fell to TCU 30-28, losing outright as 7.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 6-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the Sooners, yet we've seen this line fall from 6 to 5.5, with some shops even down to 5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on home dog Baylor. The Bears have value as a contrarian home conference dog with a line move in their favor. We've also seen some over money show up, driving the total from 62 to 63. Both teams are 6-3 to the over this season.

 

12 p.m. ET: Mississippi State at Auburn

Both of these SEC rivals are looking to bounce back from tough losses. Mississippi State (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) is unranked and just fell to Arkansas 31-28, although the Bulldogs covered as a 4-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Auburn (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) is ranked 16h but just lost to Texas A&M 20-3, failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Auburn listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Auburn. However, despite this lopsided betting the line has fallen from 5.5 to 5. This indicates some wiseguy action on Mississippi State plus the points. The Bulldogs have value as a buy-low road unranked conference dog vs a ranked opponent. 

 

12 p.m. ET: Michigan at Penn State

This Big Ten clash features two teams in the hunt for the conference title. Michigan (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) is ranked 9th and just dismissed Indiana 29-7, covering as 20.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Penn State (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) is unranked but just beat Maryald 31-14, easily covering as 10-point road favorites. This line opened at a pick'em. Pros and Joes both seem to be backing the Wolverines as we've seen Michigan move from a pick'em to a 1.5-point road favorite. When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 55% ATS over the past decade. The total has fallen from 48.5 to 48, signaling some respected under money. The forecast calls for cold mid 30s temperatures with 10-15 MPH winds. Michigan is 5-4 to the under and Penn State is 7-2 to the under. 

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