Today the weekend kicks off with Week 10 of the College Football season, plus 6 NBA games and 12 NHL games. Let's discuss where the smart is flowing for several key College Football games today...
12 p.m. ET: Wake Forest at North Carolina
This ACC grudge match features one of the most perplexing lines of the day. Wake Forest (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 9th in the country. Wake Forest just crushed Duke 45-7 last week, easily covering as 16-point home favorites. On the flip side, North Carolina (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) had high expectations coming into the season but unranked and have lost two of their last three games. North Carolina fell to Notre Dame 44-34 last week, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with North Carolina listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this line speaks volumes. If Wake Forest is highly ranked and undefeated, why are they the dog? The public is rushing to the window to take the points with Wake, yet we've seen this line stay at UNC -2.5. This signals sharp "Fade the Trendy Dog" wiseguy money laying the points with the contrarian favorite TarHeels.
3:30 p.m. ET: Michigan State at Purdue
This Big Ten showdown is the most heavily bet and also the most lopsided game of Saturday's slate. Michigan State (8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 3rd in the country. The Spartans are coming off a signature win over rival Michigan, winning 37-33 as 4-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Purdue (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) has rotated wins and losses their last six games, but just beat Nebraska 28-23, winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Michigan State listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is shocked the red-hot Spartans are only laying three points against an unranked Purdue squad. However, despite nearly 8 or 9 out of 10 bets backing Michigan State, this line has remained frozen at 3. Why hasn't it been adjusted up to -4 or -5? This signals a sharp line freeze with home dog Purdue. Oddsmakers have taken a position on Purdue and refuse to hand out a hook to brave Boilermakers bettors. Purdue is the top contrarian play of the day. Home unranked dogs against ranked opponents are 26-19 ATS (58%) this season. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 52 to 54.
7 p.m. ET: Tennessee at Kentucky
Both of these SEC foes are looking to snap two-game losing streaks. Tennessee (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) just got waxed by Alabama 52-24, failing to cover as 25-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Kentucky (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) just fell to Mississippi State 31-17, failing to cover as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with Kentucky listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public sees that Kentucky is ranked 18th and Tennessee is unranked, so naturally they are happy to lay the points with the Wildcats at home. However, we've actually seen this line fall to pick'em, with some shops even hopping the fence to Tennessee -1. This signals heavy respected money getting down on Tennessee. The Vols enjoy a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye and Kentucky played last week. The difference may come on offense. The Vols are averaging 37 PPG compared to the Wildcats putting up 27 PPG.