Saturday CFB Sharp Report


Today the weekend kicks off with 16 College Football Conference Championship games, plus 7 NBA games, 10 NHL games, and a full College Basketball slate.

Let's discuss several games receiving sharp action across the College Football landscape...
12 p.m. ET: Kent State vs Northern Illinois
This is the MAC Championship game. It will be played inside the dome at Ford Field in Detroit, home of the Lions. Kent State (7-5) has won two straight and just beat Miami Ohio 48-47. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois (8-4) is just 2-2 over their last four games and just fell to Western Michigan 42-21. This line opened with Kent State listed as a 2-point neutral site favorite. Respected money has poured in on Kent State, steaming the Golden Flashes up from -2 to -3.5. We've also seen sharp money hit the over, raising the already high total from 72 to 74.5. The over is getting 48% of bets but 82% of money, signaling wiseguy support. Both of these teams are averaging roughly 31 PPG on offense and giving up roughly 34 PPG on defense. These teams met back on November 3 and Kent State won 52-47. 
12 p.m. ET: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
This Big 12 Championship game will be played at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. Baylor (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) is ranked 9th and just beat Texas Tech 27-24, although the Bears failed to cover as 14-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State (11-1 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) is ranked 5th and just edged Oklahoma 37-33, pushing as a 4-point home favorite. This line opened with Oklahoma State listed as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the higher ranked Cowboys. However, we've seen this line fall from 6.5 to 6. Some shops even touched 5.5 throughout the week, signaling some respected money grabbing the points with Baylor. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 48 to 46. Baylor is 3-0 to the under their last three games. 
3 p.m. ET: Utah State vs. San Diego State
This Mountain West Championship game will be played in Carson, California. Utah State (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) is unranked and coming off a 35-10 win over New Mexico, covering as 17-point road favorites. On the other hand, San Diego State (11-1 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) is ranked 19th and just upset Boise State 27-16, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with San Diego State listed as a 4.5-point neutral-site favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on San Diego State, steaming the Aztecs up from -4.5 to -6. Both teams are averaging roughly 30 PPG on offense. The difference comes on defense, where Utah State is allowing 26 PPG compared to just 17 PPG allowed for San Diego State. The total has dipped slightly from 50.5 to 49.5. Both teams are 7-5 to the under this season. 
4 p.m. ET: Georgia vs. Alabama
This SEC Championship game will be played at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, home of the Atlanta Falcons. Georgia (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS) is undefeated and ranked 1st in the country. The Bulldogs just crushed Georgia Tech 45-0, covering as 35.5-point road favorites. Now they face Alabama (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS), who is ranked 3rd overall. The Crimson Tide just beat Auburn 24-22, although they failed to cover as 20.5-point road favorites. Roughly a month ago, the lookahead line on this game was Georgia listed as a 3-point favorite. This line has quickly shot up to Georgia -6.5 behind heavily lopsided public support. Roughly 75% of bets are laying the points with the top ranked Bulldogs. This lopsided betting creates a rare contrarian inflated line opportunity to buy low and take Alabama, especially if they reach the key number of  7. Alabama hasn't been a dog since 2015 when they beat Georgia 38-10 as a 1.5-point dog. The total has fallen from 50.5 to 49.5, indicating some respected under money.
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