This year’s NFL Week 17 slate is unlike any in recent memory. Only two teams, Baltimore and Buffalo, are locked into spots in the playoffs, meaning the postseason picture is far from in focus. Because the stakes are so high, I can’t run my usual Week 17 article focusing on the numerous meaningless games we usually see. There are always some very strong trends to take advantage of when teams choose to rest their starters. For instance, history has shown that following the biggest line moves has paid off for bettors on resting-starters games. Since 2006, seven Week 17 games have seen line moves of 5 points or more from open to close. Bettors are 9-1-2 ATS in such games. Consider that as you track the Week 17 lines this year, especially if the noon games create such situations in the late games.
Because of lack of games to take advantage of, I’ll instead focus on another angle I addressed earlier this season: Same Season Rematches. With 16 divisional games on tap Sunday, the rematch or revenge aspect will be paramount, and as I showed in “PSW” 12, certain teams thrive or struggle in these games. Let’s look at some of the findings I revealed six weeks ago and how they pertain this week.
Recall from the earlier article that since 2010, 53.8% of the second games between teams have gone Under the total, a very simple and profitable angle. In addition, here are some systems that have developed along with the games that apply to them this weekend.
In same-season rematches, play on teams that lost on the road by fewer than seven points in the previous game between the teams. (Record: 59-32-1 ATS, 64.8%, 23.8 Units, 26.2% ROI, Grade: 70)
Qualifying plays for Week 17 – CAROLINA, NY GIANTS, DETROIT
In same-season rematches, play on road teams that scored 35 or more in the previous game between the teams. (Record: 30-19 ATS, 61.2%, 9.1 Units, 18.6% ROI, Grade: 54)
Qualifying play for Week 17 – NEW ENGLAND
In same-season rematches, play on the road team when there are at least 10 weeks between the initial contest and rematch. (Record: 50-29 ATS since 2015, 63.3%, 18.1 Units, 22.9% ROI, Grade: 62)
Qualifying plays for Week 17 – CHICAGO, WASHINGTON, PITTSBURGH, NY JETS, MIAMI, OAKLAND
Here are some game-specific same-season rematch trends, along with the result of the initial game:
(101) TENNESSEE at (102) HOUSTON - Last Game Result: HOU ( 3) won 24-21 on 12/15
The Titans have struggled on the road in same-season rematch games, as they are just 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS since 2011. However, they did beat the Colts in this scenario Dec. 1.
(103) CLEVELAND at (104) CINCINNATI - Last Game Result: CLE (-6.5) won 27-19 on 12/8
The Bengals have lost their last six same-season rematch games outright but are on an 8-2 ATS run in that situation overall. There are interesting breakdowns by opponent, though. Against the Browns and Ravens, Cincinnati is on a 12-3 ATS winning surge since December .12. (??? SHOULD .12 BE 2012???))
(105) CHICAGO at (106) MINNESOTA - Last Game Result: CHI (-1) won 16-6 on 9/29
Going up to Minneapolis for rematch contests has been extremely tough. Before this week’s Monday night game, the Vikings were on an 11-3 SU and 10-3-1 ATS stretch since ’12. Revenge-type rematches have also brought out the best in the Vikings of late, as they are on an impressive 11-3 ATS run when having lost the initial matchup. With that in mind, Sunday’s game against the Bears will be a revenge-type contest.
(107) INDIANAPOLIS at (108) JACKSONVILLE - Last Game Result: IND (-1.5) won 33-13 on 11/17
Jacksonville has not lost a home same-season rematch against the spread since 2012, going 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in that span. You should know, then, that the Jaguars will be hosting the Colts in the season finale.
(109) ATLANTA at (110) TAMPA BAY - Last Game Result: TB ( 3) won 35-22 on 11/24
The Falcons are on a 14-4-1 Under the total run in same-season rematch games.
(111) WASHINGTON at (112) DALLAS - Last Game Result: DAL (-6) won 31-21 on 9/15
The Redskins have lost their last nine same-season rematch games both SU and ATS and are huge underdogs to lose in Dallas again.
(113) NEW ORLEANS at (114) CAROLINA - Last Game Result: NO (-8) won 34-31 on 11/24
The Panthers have generally struggled in same-season rematch games, going 9-14 ATS in their last 23.
(115) PHILADELPHIA at (116) NY GIANTS - Last Game Result: PHI (-9.5) won 23-17 on 12/9
The Giants are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 same-season rematch games in Week 17 and beyond. In revenge circumstances when having lost by 10 or fewer, they are on an impressive 9-4 SU and 11-2 ATS run.
(117) PITTSBURGH at (118) BALTIMORE - Last Game Result: BAL (-3) won 26-23 on 10/6
The Ravens have been a brutal cover team at home in same-season rematch games, going 2-12 ATS since 2010.
(119) NY JETS at (120) BUFFALO - Last Game Result: BUF ( 2.5) won 17-16 on 9/8
The Bills are on a 3-9 SU and 4-7-1 ATS slide in same-season rematch games. In second games against the Jets and Patriots over the last three years, they are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS.
(121) MIAMI at (122) NEW ENGLAND - Last Game Result: NE (-18) won 43-0 on 9/15
Coming to Foxborough in a late-season rematch has proven difficult, with Bill Belichick’s team boasting an 18-3 SU and 14-6-1 ATS record since 2010. The Patriots also have gone Under the total in eight of their last nine such games, holding opponents to a minuscule 9.8 PPG.
(123) GREEN BAY at (124) DETROIT - Last Game Result: GB (-3.5) won 23-22 on 10/14
In terms of point-spread success in same-season rematch games, few teams are worse than the Lions, as they are on a 10-18 ATS slide. They have been futile at home, going 4-9 ATS in their last 13 opportunities. A sign of the inability to make proper adjustments, Detroit is just 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS in rematch games when it lost the opener to that opponent.
(125) LA CHARGERS at (126) KANSAS CITY - Last Game Result: KC (-3.5) won 24-17 on 11/18
Typically the Chiefs have been better in a rematch when they scored well in the initial contest, 3-8 SU and ATS when scoring 21 or fewer points, 17-4 SU and 14-7 ATS when topping that mark.
(127) ARIZONA at (128) LA RAMS - Last Game Result: LAR (-2.5) won 34-7 on 12/1
The Cardinals have surprisingly been one of the best teams in the league in same-season rematches on the road, having gone 11-2 ATS in their last 13, including last week’s upset of Seattle.
(129) SAN FRANCISCO at (130) SEATTLE - Last Game Result: SEA ( 6.5) won 27-24 on 11/11
The Seahawks have lost their last five same-season rematches ATS at home, allowing 30 PPG.
(131) OAKLAND at (132) DENVER - Last Game Result: OAK ( 3) won 24-16 on 9/9
All of the Raiders’ last 14 same-season rematch games have gone Under the total, as they’ve put up just 14.9 PPG offensively.