Rodgers' Return Shifts Futures Odds Back in Packers' Favor, Plus Wednesday MLB Sharp Report

July 28, 2021 12:44 AM

The Aaron Rodgers soap opera finally came to an end yesterday. No, the reigning MVP didn't retire. Or holdout. Or request a trade. Or quit football to go host Jeopardy. He stayed right where he was: Green Bay. 

Rodgers reported to training camp on Tuesday and will suit up for the Packers for a record 17th season. It capped off a whirlwind of an offseason, including a chaotic last few days where sportsbooks were left scrambling to adjust their odds based on rumors and speculation. 

On Friday, we saw Circa sports drop the Packers win total from 11 to 8.5 following the news that Rodgers may retire. We also saw a frenzied run on Vikings futures to win the NFC North. But all of that ended yesterday with Rodgers going back to the Packers. 

Following the news of Rodgers returning, Green Bay moved from + 1600 to + 1200 to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM. The Packers also moved from + 800 to + 550 to win the NFC Conference. After reaching as a high as + 195 to win the division, Green Bay is now back down to a -165 favorite. Rodgers' MVP odds remained unchanged at + 800. 

We also saw a massive shift for Green Bay's Week 1 odds against the Saints. New Orleans had moved to a 3-point home favorite for the season opener. But now the line has completely shifted to Packers -3. Anyone who jumped on Packers + 3 yesterday before books were able to adjust must be feeling pretty, pretty, pretty good right about now. 

Now it's on to Wednesday, where we have 16 MLB games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET. We'll be joined by Adam Burke to help break down today's MLB slate. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of MLB games today.

3:40 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (62-40) at Seattle Mariners (55-47)

This is the rubber game of this three game division series. The Mariners took the opener 11-8 as big + 155 home dogs and the Astros roared back with an 8-6 win last night as -165 road favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, Houston hands the ball to veteran righty Jake Odorizzi (3-5, 4.23 ERA) and Seattle counters with lefty Yusei Kikuchi (6-5, 3.95 ERA). This line opened with the Astros listed as a modest -130 road favorite and the Mariners a + 120 home dog. The public is backing the road favorite with a better record, yet we've seen Houston tumble from -130 to -120. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the home dog Mariners (+ 120 to + 110). Seattle has value as a home dog (243-281, 46.4% this season, + 26 units). Seattle is also a divisional dog with a high total, a historically profitable spot. Pros seem to be leaning on a higher scoring game as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115. The over is 2-0 so far this series. Seattle is 44-35 as a dog this season and 33-21 at home. 

7:05 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (46-54) at Philadelphia Phillies (50-50)

These two NL East rivals have split the first two games of this division series. The Phillies won the opener 6-5 as -125 home favorite and the Nats bounced back with a 6-4 win Tuesday night as + 115 road dogs. In tonight's rematch, Washington hands the ball to lefty Patrick Corbin (6-9, 5.71 ERA) and Philadelphia counters with ace righty Zack Wheeler (8-5, 2.37 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as a hefty -175 home favorite and the Nats a + 160 road dog. Sharps see a big starting pitching advantage for the home team and aren't scared off by this big number. Wiseguys have steamed the Phillies up from -175 to -200. Home favorites have gone 591-385 (60.6%) this season, winning roughly + 13 units overall. Philadelphia is 30-20 at home this season. Washington is just 19-29 on the road. The Nats could be missing star shortstop Trea Turner, who left last night's game due to COVID protocols. There also appears to be some over liability. The total is 8 with the over juiced to -115. 

7:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (52-47) at Tampa Bay Rays (60-41)

The Yankees came up big for sharps last night, stealing the series opener 4-3 as + 125 road dogs. In tonight's rematch, New York sends out lefty Nestor Cortes (0-0, 1.95 ERA) and Tampa Bay hands the ball to righty Michael Wacha (2-2, 5.16 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a -140 home favorite and the Yankees a + 130 road dog. The public is all over the Rays to bounce back at home, but wiseguys are riding the Yankees again at a plus money payout, steaming New York down from + 130 to + 115. New York has value as a road divisional dog, a contrarian dog off a win and a dog with sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Also, teams receiving 15-cents of steam or more off a win (164-115, 58.8%) this season. New York is getting healthier, returning Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela to the lineup last night. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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