Circa offers a yes/no market for awards betting, so if you have access to Circa and FanDuel, you could theoretically bet Titans RB Derrick Henry to win the NFL MVP award at 10,000 at FanDuel while laying -6,500 against Henry at Circa. For every $100 bet on Henry at 10,000, you lay back $9,945.97 at Circa and guarantee $54.03, a 0.5278% profit. Henry might rush for 2,000 yards, but he probably won’t win the award.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes had his worst game of the season against the Dolphins last weekend. He went 24 of 34 for 393 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. For the season, Mahomes is at 4,208 passing yards with 33 touchdowns and five interceptions.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers continues to provide competition with 3,685 passing yards, 39 touchdowns and four interceptions. But the Packers are 10-3 and the Chiefs are 12-1. I don’t think voters will look at anything much deeper.
Mahomes will be the MVP unless the Chiefs finish with two losses in their final three games.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
With 1,361 total yards, the Jaguars’ James Robinson has the most scrimmage yards in NFL history by an undrafted rookie running back. But he won’t win the award.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has won four of his six NFL starts while throwing for 1,214 yards and nine touchdowns with one interception. He’s also not going to win.
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson had four receptions on eight targets for 39 yards and scored a two-point conversion in last week’s loss to the Buccaneers. He has 65 receptions for 1,078 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 games. He might win, but probably not. I think for Jefferson to win, the Vikings will need to sneak into the playoffs, which probably will require back-to-back wins against the Bears and at the Saints the next two weeks.
QB Justin Herbert got his third win when the Chargers beat the Falcons and has 3,467 yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 12 starts. Herbert needs three more touchdown passes in three games to break Baker Mayfield’s rookie record.
Herbert opened -295 at Circa this week and got bet up to -400, which I think is a more reasonable number than FanDuel’s -850. A win Thursday night on the road against a bad Raiders defense followed by a Week 16 home win against the Broncos should lock it up.
Bonus: If you bet $400 to win $100 on Herbert at Circa and $76.92 to win $423.06 on Jefferson at Circa, you are guaranteeing a profit of $23.08, or 4.8387% for every $476.92 bet, assuming Herbert or Jefferson wins.
Last week I thought about hedging some of my Herbert futures with Jefferson, but I passed, hoping the odds on Jefferson would go up again this week. With Jefferson back at 550, I’m betting $200 just to hedge some of my risk on Herbert.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year
I bet Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett early in the season and have been holding steady on them ever since. Looks like T.J. Watt is the only guy who might spoil the party. Not looking to hedge this market this week.
NFL Coach of the Year
FanDuel and Circa continue to have entirely different numbers on the Coach of the Year market. I regrettably did not pay much attention to this market until about two weeks ago, when I noticed Kevin Stefanski was 45-1 and Ron Rivera was 50-1 at Circa. I bet Stefanski, whose chances ended Monday night with the Browns’ prime-time loss to the Ravens.
Rivera was over 400 at Circa on Tuesday and got bet down to 275 pretty quickly. I would still bet Rivera at the 350 FanDuel number and slightly smaller 275, where Circa is now. If Washington wins the NFC East, Rivera wins Coach of the Year. This week I’m adding $500 on Rivera to win Coach of the Year at FanDuel at 350.
I don’t understand why or how FanDuel still has Mike Tomlin as the favorite. As I’ve said, if the criteria for winning Coach of the Year were simply most wins, Andy Reid should be favored over Tomlin. I think Sean McDermott’s number at FanDuel, 1,200, is high as well. The Bills will win the AFC East, and 1,200 is a little disrespectful to the coaching job McDermott has done.
$200 to win $1,100 on Justin Jefferson as Offensive Rookie of the Year
$500 to win $1,750 on Ron Rivera as Coach of the Year
I have $8,675 in NFL futures pending.