Prospering on totals in unique CBB season

The unique schedule that college basketball teams and bettors are facing this season is turning out to provide some pretty clear-cut wagering opportunities on totals. Significant patterns have formed, depending on the nature of consecutive games teams are playing. In short, if consecutive games are played on back-to-back days, expect the opposite totals result in the second game. If a day of rest falls between the two game days, expect a similar result.

It’s certainly an interesting pattern with an apparently solid foundation. Playing on back-to-back days in college is a relatively new situation this season. While a few conferences do this every year, others are turning to this mode of scheduling as a last resort to deal with the pandemic. When playing on back-to-back days, fatigue can present itself. This leads to unpredictable performance levels on both ends of the court. So the chances of seeing the same type of game as the night before are lessened. Bettors are also dealing with rapid adjustments made by bookmakers. But these have proven to be overadjustments more often than not.

On the other hand, with a day of rest scheduled between games pitting the same two opponents, the fatigue factor is not there, so the performances are a bit more predictable. The totals aren’t adjusted nearly as much by the books, and handicappers are typically comfortable with using their normal pace and efficiency statistics or trends to project their totals.

Here are the two systems that have played out so far in the 2020-21 season, with games through Sunday accounted for.

In consecutive games played on back-to-back days in the 2020-21 season, the result on the total of the second game has been the opposite of the first 57% of the time (176-133-5).

Keep an eye on games that finished 20 points or more below the current posted total, as those have rebounded to go Over at a 16-7 (69.6%) rate so far.

In consecutive games played with a day of rest between the games in the 2020-21 season, the result on the total of the second game has been the same as the first 56% of the time (33-26).

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