In recent years, the College Football Playoff national championship game has been a good practice session for the Super Bowl when it comes to handicapping the prop markets.
There aren’t quite as many props available for the ultimate college football game of the season but enough for handicappers and bettors to find some good value bets and to get a lay of the land in advance of the Big Game on Feb. 13. In many ways, I find that the prop markets are far better to attack. The Georgia -3 spread and total of 52.5 for Monday night’s game should (in theory) be the tightest and most efficient lines of the season.
Any bettor with influence who wants to take a position does so. It is the highest-bet game of the college football season. Betting action is what creates an efficient line, and this one will be examined from every possible angle by kickoff. Anybody who says they have a big bet on the side or total because of some giant edge also has oceanfront property in Topeka to sell you.
The props are where it’s at, though. If you spend the time leading up to the game thinking about how it will play out, you can really isolate some strong wagers. We also have a recent data point between these two teams to consider when breaking down that market. We know which matchups the teams exploited in the first game and we can think long and hard about whether or not those issues can be corrected by the other team.
Analyzing the SEC championship game
Alabama’s game plan in the SEC title game was to attack vertically. Nobody had been able to do that to Georgia, but the Crimson Tide were equipped to do so with Heisman-winning quarterback Bryce Young and star wideouts John Metchie III and Jameson Williams. Running back Brian Robinson Jr. had only 16 carries and Alabama had 26 total, three of which were scrambles by Young and another was a kneel-down.