Most teams have five games left in the NFL regular season. By now we have a good feel for what each team brings to the table. It is a perfect time to project the rest of the season using power ratings and use the findings to uncover potential playoff/divisional title odds value.
For this exercise, I took my power ratings as of Dec. 1 and plotted out each team’s remaining schedule while also factoring in my adjusted home-field advantage ratings and any injuries that figure to affect the action. I then calculated projected final lines and win probabilities for each game and used these to forecast a record. I’ve analyzed all results by division. For fun, I then projected the playoff seeds in each conference.
AFC East
Here are the AFC East title odds as of Dec. 1:
Buffalo: -550
Miami + 400
New England + 2,600
BUFFALO
12/7: at SAN FRANCISCO. Proj FL: -1.5, Win Prob: 54%
12/13: PITTSBURGH. Proj FL: + 4.5, Win Prob: 37%
12/19: at DENVER. Proj FL: -2.5, Win Prob: 57%
12/28: at NEW ENGLAND. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 53%
1/3: MIAMI. Proj FL: -3, Win Prob: 59%
Projected rest-of-season record: 2.6-2.4
MIAMI
12/6: CINCINNATI. Proj FL: -12, Win Prob: 81%
12/13: KANSAS CITY. Proj FL: + 7.5, Win Prob: 29%
12/20: NEW ENGLAND. Proj FL: -2.5, Win Prob: 57%
12/26: at LAS VEGAS. Proj FL: + 2, Win Prob: 44%
1/3: at BUFFALO. Proj FL: + 3, Win Prob: 41%
Projected rest-of-season record: 2.5-2.5
NEW ENGLAND
12/6: at LA CHARGERS. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 53%
12/10: at LA RAMS. Proj FL: + 5.5, Win Prob: 34%
12/20: at MIAMI. Proj FL: + 2.5, Win Prob: 43%
12/28: BUFFALO. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%
1/3: NY JETS. Proj FL: -11, Win Prob: 79%
Projected rest-of-season record: 2.6-2.4
NEW YORK JETS
12/6: LAS VEGAS. Proj FL: + 9.5, Win Prob: 24%
12/13: at SEATTLE. Proj FL: + 15.5, Win Prob: 13%
12/19: at LA RAMS. Proj FL: + 15.5, Win Prob: 13%
12/26: CLEVELAND. Proj FL: + 9, Win Prob: 25%
1/3: at NEW ENGLAND. Proj FL: + 11, Win Prob: 21%
Projected rest-of-season record: 0.9-4.1
AFC North
Here are the AFC North title odds as of Dec. 1:
Pittsburgh -1,900
Baltimore + 1,600
Cleveland + 2,200
BALTIMORE
12/2: at PITTSBURGH. Proj FL: + 11, Win Prob: 21%
12/3: DALLAS. Proj FL: -13, Win Prob: 83%
12/14: at CLEVELAND. Proj FL: -3.5, Win Prob: 60%
12/20: JACKSONVILLE. Proj FL: -14, Win Prob: 85%
12/27: NY GIANTS. Proj FL: -11, Win Prob: 79%
1/3: at CINCINNATI. Proj FL: -14, Win Prob: 85%
Projected rest-of-season record: 4.1-1.9
CINCINNATI
12/6: at MIAMI. Proj FL: + 12, Win Prob: 19%
12/13: DALLAS. Proj FL: + 2.5, Win Prob: 43%
12/21: PITTSBURGH. Proj FL: + 16.5, Win Prob: 11%
12/27: at HOUSTON. Proj FL: + 12.5, Win Prob: 18%
1/3: BALTIMORE. Proj FL: + 14, Win Prob: 15%
Projected rest-of-season record: 1-4
CLEVELAND
12/6: at TENNESSEE. Proj FL: + 5, Win Prob: 36%
12/14: BALTIMORE. Proj FL: + 3.5, Win Prob: 40%
12/20: at NY GIANTS. Proj FL: -3.5, Win Prob: 60%
12/26: at NY JETS. Proj FL: -9, Win Prob: 75%
1/3: PITTSBURGH. Proj FL: + 6, Win Prob: 33%
Projected rest-of-season record: 2.4-2.6
PITTSBURGH
12/2: BALTIMORE. Proj FL: -11, Win Prob: 79%
12/6: WASHINGTON. Proj FL: -11.5, Win Prob: 80%
12/13: at BUFFALO. Proj FL: -4.5, Win Prob: 63%
12/21: at CINCINNATI. Proj FL: -16.5, Win Prob: 89%
12/27: INDIANAPOLIS. Proj FL: -7, Win Prob: 70%
1/3: at CLEVELAND. Proj FL: -6, Win Prob: 67%
Projected rest-of-season record: 3.7-2.3
AFC South
Here are the AFC South title odds as of Dec. 1:
Tennessee -450
Indianapolis + 330
Houston + 6,000
HOUSTON
12/6: INDIANAPOLIS. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%
12/13: at CHICAGO. Proj FL: -2.5, Win Prob: 57%
12/19: at INDIANAPOLIS. Proj FL: + 5.5, Win Prob: 34%
12/27: CINCINNATI. Proj FL: -12.5, Win Prob: 82%
1/3: TENNESSEE. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%
Projected rest-of-season record: 2.7-2.3
INDIANAPOLIS
12/6: at HOUSTON. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 47%
12/13: at LAS VEGAS. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 47%
12/19: HOUSTON. Proj FL: -5.5, Win Prob: 66%
12/27: at PITTSBURGH. Proj FL: + 7, Win Prob: 30%
1/3: JACKSONVILLE. Proj FL: -12, Win Prob: 81%
Projected rest-of-season record: 2.7-2.3
JACKSONVILLE
12/6: at MINNESOTA. Proj FL: + 8.5, Win Prob: 26%
12/13: TENNESSEE. Proj FL: + 8, Win Prob: 28%
12/20: at BALTIMORE. Proj FL: + 14, Win Prob: 15%
12/27: CHICAGO. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%
1/3: at INDIANAPOLIS. Proj FL: + 12, Win Prob: 19%
Projected rest-of-season record: 1.3-3.7
TENNESSEE
12/6: CLEVELAND. Proj FL: -5, Win Prob: 65%
12/13: at JACKSONVILLE. Proj FL: -8, Win Prob: 72%
12/19: DETROIT. Proj FL: -11, Win Prob: 79%
12/27: at GREEN BAY. Proj FL: + 3.5, Win Prob: 40%
1/3: at HOUSTON. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 53%
Projected rest-of-season record: 3.1-1.9
AFC West
Here are the AFC South title odds as of Dec. 1:
Kansas City -20,000
Las Vegas + 6,500
DENVER
12/6: at KANSAS CITY. Proj FL: + 14.5, Win Prob: 14%
12/13: at CAROLINA. Proj FL: + 6, Win Prob: 33%
12/19: BUFFALO. Proj FL: + 2.5, Win Prob: 43%
12/26: at LA CHARGERS. Proj FL: + 2, Win Prob: 44%
1/3: LAS VEGAS. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%
Projected rest-of-season record: 1.8-3.2
KANSAS CITY
12/6: DENVER. Proj FL: -14.5, Win Prob: 86%
12/13: at MIAMI. Proj FL: -7.5, Win Prob: 71%
12/20: at NEW ORLEANS. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 47%
12/27: ATLANTA. Proj FL: -12.5, Win Prob: 82%
1/3: LA CHARGERS. Proj FL: -13, Win Prob: 83%
Projected rest-of-season record: 3.7-1.3
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
12/6: NEW ENGLAND. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%
12/13: ATLANTA. Proj FL: Pick-’em, Win Prob: 50%
12/17: at LAS VEGAS. Proj FL: + 3.5, Win Prob: 40%
12/26: DENVER. Proj FL: -2, Win Prob: 56%
1/3: at KANSAS CITY. Proj FL: + 13, Win Prob: 17%
Projected rest-of-season record: 2.1-2.9
LAS VEGAS
12/6: at NY JETS. Proj FL: -9.5, Win Prob: 76%
12/13: INDIANAPOLIS. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%
12/17: LA CHARGERS. Proj FL: -3.5, Win Prob: 60%
12/26: MIAMI. Proj FL: -2, Win Prob: 56%
1/3: at DENVER. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 53%
Projected rest-of-season record: 2.9-2.1
NFC East
Here are the NFC East title odds as of Dec. 1:
N.Y. Giants + 210
Washington + 220
Philadelphia + 230
Dallas + 460
DALLAS
12/3: at BALTIMORE. Proj FL: + 13, Win Prob: 17%
12/13: at CINCINNATI. Proj FL: -2.5, Win Prob: 57%
12/20: SAN FRANCISCO. Proj FL: + 4, Win Prob: 38%
12/27: PHILADELPHIA. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%
1/3: at NY GIANTS. Proj FL: + 2.5, Win Prob: 43%
Projected rest-of-season record: 2-3
NEW YORK GIANTS
12/6: at SEATTLE. Proj FL: + 9.5, Win Prob: 24%
12/13: ARIZONA. Proj FL: + 5.5, Win Prob: 34%
12/20: CLEVELAND. Proj FL: + 3.5, Win Prob: 40%
12/27: at BALTIMORE. Proj FL: + 11, Win Prob: 21%
1/3: DALLAS. Proj FL: -2.5, Win Prob: 57%
Projected rest-of-season record: 1.8-3.2
PHILADELPHIA
12/6: at GREEN BAY. Proj FL: + 9.5, Win Prob: 24%
12/13: NEW ORLEANS. Proj FL: + 5, Win Prob: 36%
12/20: at ARIZONA. Proj FL: + 7, Win Prob: 30%
12/27: at DALLAS. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 53%
1/3: WASHINGTON. Proj FL: Pick-’em, Win Prob: 50%
Projected rest-of-season record: 1.9-3.1
WASHINGTON
12/6: at PITTSBURGH. Proj FL: + 11.5, Win Prob: 20%
12/13: at SAN FRANCISCO. Proj FL: + 2, Win Prob: 44%
12/20: SEATTLE. Proj FL: + 4.5, Win Prob: 37%
12/27: CAROLINA. Proj FL: + 1.5, Win Prob: 46%
1/3: at PHILADELPHIA. Proj FL: Pick-’em, Win Prob: 50%
Projected rest-of-season record: 2-3
NFC North
Here are the NFC North title odds as of Dec. 1:
Green Bay -1,900
Chicago + 2,000
Minnesota + 2,100
Detroit + 24,000
CHICAGO
12/6: DETROIT. Proj FL: -2.5, Win Prob: 57%
12/13: HOUSTON. Proj FL: + 2.5, Win Prob: 43%
12/20: at MINNESOTA. Proj FL: + 6, Win Prob: 33%
12/27: at JACKSONVILLE. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 47%
1/3: GREEN BAY. Proj FL: + 7.5, Win Prob: 29%
Projected rest-of-season record: 2.1-2.9
DETROIT
12/6: at CHICAGO. Proj FL: + 2.5, Win Prob: 43%
12/13: GREEN BAY. Proj FL: + 9, Win Prob: 25%
12/19: at TENNESSEE. Proj FL: + 11, Win Prob: 21%
12/26: TAMPA BAY. Proj FL: + 9, Win Prob: 25%
1/3: MINNESOTA. Proj FL: + 4, Win Prob: 38%
Projected rest-of-season record: 1.5-3.5
GREEN BAY
12/6: PHILADELPHIA. Proj FL: -9.5, Win Prob: 76%
12/13: at DETROIT. Proj FL: -9, Win Prob: 75%
12/19: CAROLINA. Proj FL: -5.5, Win Prob: 66%
12/27: TENNESSEE. Proj FL: -3.5, Win Prob: 60%
1/3: at CHICAGO. Proj FL: -7.5, Win Prob: 71%
Projected rest-of-season record: 3.5-1.5
MINNESOTA
12/6: JACKSONVILLE. Proj FL: -8.5, Win Prob: 74%
12/13: at TAMPA BAY. Proj FL: + 7, Win Prob: 30%
12/20: CHICAGO. Proj FL: -6, Win Prob: 67%
12/25: at NEW ORLEANS. Proj FL: + 9, Win Prob: 25%
1/3: at DETROIT. Proj FL: -4, Win Prob: 62%
Projected rest-of-season record: 2.6-2.4
NFC South
Here are the NFC South title odds as of Dec. 1:
New Orleans -6,000
Tampa Bay + 1,900
Atlanta + 75,000
ATLANTA
12/6: NEW ORLEANS. Proj FL: + 2.5, Win Prob: 43%
12/13: at LA CHARGERS. Proj FL: Pick-’em, Win Prob: 50%
12/20: TAMPA BAY. Proj FL: + 3.5, Win Prob: 40%
12/27: at KANSAS CITY. Proj FL: + 12.5, Win Prob: 18%
1/3: at TAMPA BAY. Proj FL: + 7.5, Win Prob: 29%
Projected rest-of-season record: 1.8-3.2
CAROLINA
12/13: DENVER. Proj FL: -6, Win Prob: 67%
12/19: at GREEN BAY. Proj FL: + 5.5, Win Prob: 34%
12/27: at WASHINGTON. Proj FL: -1.5, Win Prob: 54%
1/3: NEW ORLEANS. Proj FL: + 3.5, Win Prob: 40%
Projected rest-of-season record: 2-2
NEW ORLEANS
12/6: at ATLANTA. Proj FL: -2.5, Win Prob: 57%
12/13: at PHILADELPHIA. Proj FL: -5, Win Prob: 65%
12/20: KANSAS CITY. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%
12/25: MINNESOTA. Proj FL: -9, Win Prob: 75%
1/3: at CAROLINA. Proj FL: -3.5, Win Prob: 60%
Projected rest-of-season record: 3-2
TAMPA BAY
12/13: MINNESOTA. Proj FL: -7, Win Prob: 70%
12/20: at ATLANTA. Proj FL: -3.5, Win Prob: 60%
12/26: at DETROIT. Proj FL: -9, Win Prob: 75%
1/3: ATLANTA. Proj FL: -7.5, Win Prob: 71%
Projected rest-of-season record: 2.8-1.2
NFC West
Here are the NFC West title odds as of Dec. 1:
Seattle -240
L.A. Rams + 210
Arizona + 1,700
San Francisco + 8,500
ARIZONA
12/6: LA RAMS. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%
12/13: at NY GIANTS. Proj FL: -5.5, Win Prob: 66%
12/20: PHILADELPHIA. Proj FL: -7, Win Prob: 70%
12/26: SAN FRANCISCO. Proj FL: -3.5, Win Prob: 60%
1/3: at LA RAMS. Proj FL: + 3, Win Prob: 41%
Projected rest-of-season record: 2.8-2.2
LOS ANGELES RAMS
12/6: at ARIZONA. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 53%
12/10: NEW ENGLAND. Proj FL: -5.5, Win Prob: 66%
12/19: NY JETS. Proj FL: -15.5, Win Prob: 88%
12/27: at SEATTLE. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%
1/3: ARIZONA. Proj FL: -3, Win Prob: 59%
Projected rest-of-season record: 3.1-1.9
SAN FRANCISCO
12/7: BUFFALO. Proj FL: + 1.5, Win Prob: 46%
12/13: WASHINGTON. Proj FL: -2, Win Prob: 56%
12/20: at DALLAS. Proj FL: -4, Win Prob: 62%
12/26: at ARIZONA. Proj FL: + 3.5, Win Prob: 40%
1/3: SEATTLE. Proj FL: + 3.5, Win Prob: 40%
Projected rest-of-season record: 2.4-2.6
SEATTLE
12/6: NY GIANTS. Proj FL: -9.5, Win Prob: 76%
12/13: NY JETS. Proj FL: -15.5, Win Prob: 88%
12/20: at WASHINGTON. Proj FL: -4.5, Win Prob: 63%
12/27: LA RAMS. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 47%
1/3: at SAN FRANCISCO. Proj FL: -3.5, Win Prob: 60%
Projected rest-of-season record: 3.3-1.7
Analysis
Here are some tips for potential wagers:
Best underdog to win division: Washington
Best-priced favorite to win division: Seattle
Worst-priced favorite to win division: Tennessee
Team currently out of the playoffs to make run to get in: Las Vegas
Team currently in the playoffs to fade out: New York Giants
Long-shot team to sneak into playoffs: Atlanta
Long-shot team to miss playoffs: Indianapolis
Projected Playoffs Seeds
AFC Division Winners
#1 – Kansas City
#2 – Pittsburgh
#3 – Tennessee
#4 – Buffalo
Wild Cards
#5 – Cleveland (would face #4 Buffalo)
#6 – Baltimore (would face #3 Tennessee)
#7 – Indianapolis (would face #2 Pittsburgh)
NFC Division Winners
#1 – New Orleans
#2 – Green Bay
#3 – Seattle
#4 – Washington
Wild Cards
#5 – Los Angeles Rams (would face #4 Washington)
#6 – Tampa Bay (would face #3 Seattle)
#7 – Arizona (would face #2 Green Bay)