Projecting rest of NFL regular season

Most teams have five games left in the NFL regular season. By now we have a good feel for what each team brings to the table. It is a perfect time to project the rest of the season using power ratings and use the findings to uncover potential playoff/divisional title odds value.

For this exercise, I took my power ratings as of Dec. 1 and plotted out each team’s remaining schedule while also factoring in my adjusted home-field advantage ratings and any injuries that figure to affect the action. I then calculated projected final lines and win probabilities for each game and used these to forecast a record. I’ve analyzed all results by division. For fun, I then projected the playoff seeds in each conference.

 

AFC East 

Here are the AFC East title odds as of Dec. 1:

Buffalo: -550

Miami + 400

New England + 2,600

BUFFALO

12/7: at SAN FRANCISCO. Proj FL: -1.5, Win Prob: 54%

12/13: PITTSBURGH. Proj FL: + 4.5, Win Prob: 37%

12/19: at DENVER. Proj FL: -2.5, Win Prob: 57%

12/28: at NEW ENGLAND. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 53%

1/3: MIAMI. Proj FL: -3, Win Prob: 59%

Projected rest-of-season record: 2.6-2.4

MIAMI

12/6: CINCINNATI. Proj FL: -12, Win Prob: 81%

12/13: KANSAS CITY. Proj FL: + 7.5, Win Prob: 29%

12/20: NEW ENGLAND. Proj FL: -2.5, Win Prob: 57%

12/26: at LAS VEGAS. Proj FL: + 2, Win Prob: 44%

1/3: at BUFFALO. Proj FL: + 3, Win Prob: 41%

Projected rest-of-season record: 2.5-2.5

NEW ENGLAND

12/6: at LA CHARGERS. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 53%

12/10: at LA RAMS. Proj FL: + 5.5, Win Prob: 34%

12/20: at MIAMI. Proj FL: + 2.5, Win Prob: 43%

12/28: BUFFALO. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%

1/3: NY JETS. Proj FL: -11, Win Prob: 79%

Projected rest-of-season record: 2.6-2.4

NEW YORK JETS

12/6: LAS VEGAS. Proj FL: + 9.5, Win Prob: 24%

12/13: at SEATTLE. Proj FL: + 15.5, Win Prob: 13%

12/19: at LA RAMS. Proj FL: + 15.5, Win Prob: 13%

12/26: CLEVELAND. Proj FL: + 9, Win Prob: 25%

1/3: at NEW ENGLAND. Proj FL: + 11, Win Prob: 21%

Projected rest-of-season record: 0.9-4.1

AFC North 

Here are the AFC North title odds as of Dec. 1:

Pittsburgh -1,900

Baltimore + 1,600

Cleveland + 2,200

BALTIMORE

12/2: at PITTSBURGH. Proj FL: + 11, Win Prob: 21%

12/3: DALLAS. Proj FL: -13, Win Prob: 83%

12/14: at CLEVELAND. Proj FL: -3.5, Win Prob: 60%

12/20: JACKSONVILLE. Proj FL: -14, Win Prob: 85%

12/27: NY GIANTS. Proj FL: -11, Win Prob: 79%

1/3: at CINCINNATI. Proj FL: -14, Win Prob: 85%

Projected rest-of-season record: 4.1-1.9

CINCINNATI

12/6: at MIAMI. Proj FL: + 12, Win Prob: 19%

12/13: DALLAS. Proj FL: + 2.5, Win Prob: 43%

12/21: PITTSBURGH. Proj FL: + 16.5, Win Prob: 11%

12/27: at HOUSTON. Proj FL: + 12.5, Win Prob: 18%

1/3: BALTIMORE. Proj FL: + 14, Win Prob: 15%

Projected rest-of-season record: 1-4

CLEVELAND

12/6: at TENNESSEE. Proj FL: + 5, Win Prob: 36%

12/14: BALTIMORE. Proj FL: + 3.5, Win Prob: 40%

12/20: at NY GIANTS. Proj FL: -3.5, Win Prob: 60%

12/26: at NY JETS. Proj FL: -9, Win Prob: 75%

1/3: PITTSBURGH. Proj FL: + 6, Win Prob: 33%

Projected rest-of-season record: 2.4-2.6

PITTSBURGH

12/2: BALTIMORE. Proj FL: -11, Win Prob: 79%

12/6: WASHINGTON. Proj FL: -11.5, Win Prob: 80%

12/13: at BUFFALO. Proj FL: -4.5, Win Prob: 63%

12/21: at CINCINNATI. Proj FL: -16.5, Win Prob: 89%

12/27: INDIANAPOLIS. Proj FL: -7, Win Prob: 70%

1/3: at CLEVELAND. Proj FL: -6, Win Prob: 67%

Projected rest-of-season record: 3.7-2.3

AFC South 

Here are the AFC South title odds as of Dec. 1:

Tennessee -450

Indianapolis + 330

Houston + 6,000

HOUSTON

12/6: INDIANAPOLIS. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%

12/13: at CHICAGO. Proj FL: -2.5, Win Prob: 57%

12/19: at INDIANAPOLIS. Proj FL: + 5.5, Win Prob: 34%

12/27: CINCINNATI. Proj FL: -12.5, Win Prob: 82%

1/3: TENNESSEE. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%

Projected rest-of-season record: 2.7-2.3

INDIANAPOLIS

12/6: at HOUSTON. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 47%

12/13: at LAS VEGAS. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 47%

12/19: HOUSTON. Proj FL: -5.5, Win Prob: 66%

12/27: at PITTSBURGH. Proj FL: + 7, Win Prob: 30%

1/3: JACKSONVILLE. Proj FL: -12, Win Prob: 81%

Projected rest-of-season record: 2.7-2.3

JACKSONVILLE

12/6: at MINNESOTA. Proj FL: + 8.5, Win Prob: 26%

12/13: TENNESSEE. Proj FL: + 8, Win Prob: 28%

12/20: at BALTIMORE. Proj FL: + 14, Win Prob: 15%

12/27: CHICAGO. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%

1/3: at INDIANAPOLIS. Proj FL: + 12, Win Prob: 19%

Projected rest-of-season record: 1.3-3.7

TENNESSEE

12/6: CLEVELAND. Proj FL: -5, Win Prob: 65%

12/13: at JACKSONVILLE. Proj FL: -8, Win Prob: 72%

12/19: DETROIT. Proj FL: -11, Win Prob: 79%

12/27: at GREEN BAY. Proj FL: + 3.5, Win Prob: 40%

1/3: at HOUSTON. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 53%

Projected rest-of-season record:  3.1-1.9

AFC West 

Here are the AFC South title odds as of Dec. 1:

Kansas City -20,000

Las Vegas + 6,500

DENVER

12/6: at KANSAS CITY. Proj FL: + 14.5, Win Prob: 14%

12/13: at CAROLINA. Proj FL: + 6, Win Prob: 33%

12/19: BUFFALO. Proj FL: + 2.5, Win Prob: 43%

12/26: at LA CHARGERS. Proj FL: + 2, Win Prob: 44%

1/3: LAS VEGAS. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%

Projected rest-of-season record: 1.8-3.2

KANSAS CITY

12/6: DENVER. Proj FL: -14.5, Win Prob: 86%

12/13: at MIAMI. Proj FL: -7.5, Win Prob: 71%

12/20: at NEW ORLEANS. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 47%

12/27: ATLANTA. Proj FL: -12.5, Win Prob: 82%

1/3: LA CHARGERS. Proj FL: -13, Win Prob: 83%

Projected rest-of-season record: 3.7-1.3

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

12/6: NEW ENGLAND. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%

12/13: ATLANTA. Proj FL: Pick-’em, Win Prob: 50%

12/17: at LAS VEGAS. Proj FL: + 3.5, Win Prob: 40%

12/26: DENVER. Proj FL: -2, Win Prob: 56%

1/3: at KANSAS CITY. Proj FL: + 13, Win Prob: 17%

Projected rest-of-season record: 2.1-2.9

LAS VEGAS

12/6: at NY JETS. Proj FL: -9.5, Win Prob: 76%

12/13: INDIANAPOLIS. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%

12/17: LA CHARGERS. Proj FL: -3.5, Win Prob: 60%

12/26: MIAMI. Proj FL: -2, Win Prob: 56%

1/3: at DENVER. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 53%

Projected rest-of-season record: 2.9-2.1

NFC East 

Here are the NFC East title odds as of Dec. 1:

N.Y. Giants + 210

Washington + 220

Philadelphia + 230

Dallas + 460

DALLAS

12/3: at BALTIMORE. Proj FL: + 13, Win Prob: 17%

12/13: at CINCINNATI. Proj FL: -2.5, Win Prob: 57%

12/20: SAN FRANCISCO. Proj FL: + 4, Win Prob: 38%

12/27: PHILADELPHIA. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%

1/3: at NY GIANTS. Proj FL: + 2.5, Win Prob: 43%

Projected rest-of-season record: 2-3

NEW YORK GIANTS

12/6: at SEATTLE. Proj FL: + 9.5, Win Prob: 24%

12/13: ARIZONA. Proj FL: + 5.5, Win Prob: 34%

12/20: CLEVELAND. Proj FL: + 3.5, Win Prob: 40%

12/27: at BALTIMORE. Proj FL: + 11, Win Prob: 21%

1/3: DALLAS. Proj FL: -2.5, Win Prob: 57%

Projected rest-of-season record: 1.8-3.2

PHILADELPHIA

12/6: at GREEN BAY. Proj FL: + 9.5, Win Prob: 24%

12/13: NEW ORLEANS. Proj FL: + 5, Win Prob: 36%

12/20: at ARIZONA. Proj FL: + 7, Win Prob: 30%

12/27: at DALLAS. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 53%

1/3: WASHINGTON. Proj FL: Pick-’em, Win Prob: 50%

Projected rest-of-season record: 1.9-3.1

WASHINGTON

12/6: at PITTSBURGH. Proj FL: + 11.5, Win Prob: 20%

12/13: at SAN FRANCISCO. Proj FL: + 2, Win Prob: 44%

12/20: SEATTLE. Proj FL: + 4.5, Win Prob: 37%

12/27: CAROLINA. Proj FL: + 1.5, Win Prob: 46%

1/3: at PHILADELPHIA. Proj FL: Pick-’em, Win Prob: 50%

Projected rest-of-season record: 2-3

NFC North 

Here are the NFC North title odds as of Dec. 1:

Green Bay -1,900

Chicago + 2,000

Minnesota + 2,100

Detroit + 24,000

CHICAGO

12/6: DETROIT. Proj FL: -2.5, Win Prob: 57%

12/13: HOUSTON. Proj FL: + 2.5, Win Prob: 43%

12/20: at MINNESOTA. Proj FL: + 6, Win Prob: 33%

12/27: at JACKSONVILLE. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 47%

1/3: GREEN BAY. Proj FL: + 7.5, Win Prob: 29%

Projected rest-of-season record: 2.1-2.9

DETROIT

12/6: at CHICAGO. Proj FL: + 2.5, Win Prob: 43%

12/13: GREEN BAY. Proj FL: + 9, Win Prob: 25%

12/19: at TENNESSEE. Proj FL: + 11, Win Prob: 21%

12/26: TAMPA BAY.  Proj FL: + 9, Win Prob: 25%

1/3: MINNESOTA. Proj FL: + 4, Win Prob: 38%

Projected rest-of-season record: 1.5-3.5

GREEN BAY

12/6: PHILADELPHIA. Proj FL: -9.5, Win Prob: 76%

12/13: at DETROIT. Proj FL: -9, Win Prob: 75%

12/19: CAROLINA. Proj FL: -5.5, Win Prob: 66%

12/27: TENNESSEE. Proj FL: -3.5, Win Prob: 60%

1/3: at CHICAGO. Proj FL: -7.5, Win Prob: 71%

Projected rest-of-season record: 3.5-1.5

MINNESOTA

12/6: JACKSONVILLE. Proj FL: -8.5, Win Prob: 74%

12/13: at TAMPA BAY. Proj FL: + 7, Win Prob: 30%

12/20: CHICAGO. Proj FL: -6, Win Prob: 67%

12/25: at NEW ORLEANS. Proj FL: + 9, Win Prob: 25%

1/3: at DETROIT. Proj FL: -4, Win Prob: 62%

Projected rest-of-season record: 2.6-2.4

NFC South 

Here are the NFC South title odds as of Dec. 1:

New Orleans -6,000

Tampa Bay + 1,900

Atlanta + 75,000

ATLANTA

12/6: NEW ORLEANS. Proj FL: + 2.5, Win Prob: 43%

12/13: at LA CHARGERS. Proj FL: Pick-’em, Win Prob: 50%

12/20: TAMPA BAY. Proj FL: + 3.5, Win Prob: 40%

12/27: at KANSAS CITY. Proj FL: + 12.5, Win Prob: 18%

1/3: at TAMPA BAY. Proj FL: + 7.5, Win Prob: 29%

Projected rest-of-season record: 1.8-3.2

CAROLINA

12/13: DENVER. Proj FL: -6, Win Prob: 67%

12/19: at GREEN BAY. Proj FL: + 5.5, Win Prob: 34%

12/27: at WASHINGTON. Proj FL: -1.5, Win Prob: 54%

1/3: NEW ORLEANS. Proj FL: + 3.5, Win Prob: 40%

Projected rest-of-season record: 2-2

NEW ORLEANS

12/6: at ATLANTA. Proj FL: -2.5, Win Prob: 57%

12/13: at PHILADELPHIA. Proj FL: -5, Win Prob: 65%

12/20: KANSAS CITY. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%

12/25: MINNESOTA. Proj FL: -9, Win Prob: 75%

1/3: at CAROLINA. Proj FL: -3.5, Win Prob: 60%

Projected rest-of-season record: 3-2

TAMPA BAY

12/13: MINNESOTA. Proj FL: -7, Win Prob: 70%

12/20: at ATLANTA. Proj FL: -3.5, Win Prob: 60%

12/26: at DETROIT. Proj FL: -9, Win Prob: 75%

1/3: ATLANTA. Proj FL: -7.5, Win Prob: 71%

Projected rest-of-season record: 2.8-1.2

NFC West 

Here are the NFC West title odds as of Dec. 1:

Seattle -240

L.A. Rams + 210

Arizona + 1,700

San Francisco + 8,500

ARIZONA

12/6: LA RAMS. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%

12/13: at NY GIANTS. Proj FL: -5.5, Win Prob: 66%

12/20: PHILADELPHIA. Proj FL: -7, Win Prob: 70%

12/26: SAN FRANCISCO. Proj FL: -3.5, Win Prob: 60%

1/3: at LA RAMS. Proj FL: + 3, Win Prob: 41%

Projected rest-of-season record: 2.8-2.2

LOS ANGELES RAMS

12/6: at ARIZONA. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 53%

12/10: NEW ENGLAND. Proj FL: -5.5, Win Prob: 66%

12/19: NY JETS. Proj FL: -15.5, Win Prob: 88%

12/27: at SEATTLE. Proj FL: + 1, Win Prob: 47%

1/3: ARIZONA. Proj FL: -3, Win Prob: 59%

Projected rest-of-season record: 3.1-1.9

SAN FRANCISCO

12/7: BUFFALO. Proj FL: + 1.5, Win Prob: 46%

12/13: WASHINGTON. Proj FL: -2, Win Prob: 56%

12/20: at DALLAS. Proj FL: -4, Win Prob: 62%

12/26: at ARIZONA. Proj FL: + 3.5, Win Prob: 40%

1/3: SEATTLE. Proj FL: + 3.5, Win Prob: 40%

Projected rest-of-season record: 2.4-2.6

SEATTLE

12/6: NY GIANTS. Proj FL: -9.5, Win Prob: 76%

12/13: NY JETS. Proj FL: -15.5, Win Prob: 88%

12/20: at WASHINGTON. Proj FL: -4.5, Win Prob: 63%

12/27: LA RAMS. Proj FL: -1, Win Prob: 47%

1/3: at SAN FRANCISCO. Proj FL: -3.5, Win Prob: 60%

Projected rest-of-season record: 3.3-1.7

Analysis

Here are some tips for potential wagers:

Best underdog to win division: Washington

Best-priced favorite to win division: Seattle

Worst-priced favorite to win division: Tennessee

Team currently out of the playoffs to make run to get in: Las Vegas

Team currently in the playoffs to fade out: New York Giants

Long-shot team to sneak into playoffs: Atlanta

Long-shot team to miss playoffs: Indianapolis

Projected Playoffs Seeds

AFC Division Winners

#1 – Kansas City

#2 – Pittsburgh

#3 – Tennessee

#4 – Buffalo

Wild Cards

#5 – Cleveland (would face #4 Buffalo)

#6 – Baltimore (would face #3 Tennessee)

#7 – Indianapolis (would face #2 Pittsburgh)

NFC Division Winners

#1 – New Orleans

#2 – Green Bay

#3 – Seattle

#4 – Washington

Wild Cards

#5 – Los Angeles Rams (would face #4 Washington)

#6 – Tampa Bay (would face #3 Seattle)

#7 – Arizona (would face #2 Green Bay)

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