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Projecting rest of NFL regular season

Most teams have five games left in the NFL regular season. By now we have a good feel for what each team brings to the table. It is a perfect time to project the rest of the season using power ratings and use the findings to uncover potential playoff/divisional title odds value.

For this exercise, I took my power ratings as of Dec. 1 and plotted out each team’s remaining schedule while also factoring in my adjusted home-field advantage ratings and any injuries that figure to affect the action. I then calculated projected final lines and win probabilities for each game and used these to forecast a record. I’ve analyzed all results by division. For fun, I then projected the playoff seeds in each conference.

 

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