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We’re over a month into the college football season, and most teams have played three or four games. This makes it a good time to start taking stock of how teams might fare the rest of the way. It can be a real find to uncover the teams that will still be the big point-spread winners in 2021. In the last eight seasons, 32 teams have won more than 75 percent or at least 11 games ATS in a given campaign, as the chart indicates.
With just a few games gone in 2021, it leaves plenty of time to take advantage of these big-money teams — if we can uncover them. Let’s look at some of the shared characteristics of those 32 top-performing teams after three games into those seasons to see if we can determine the big-money teams of 2021 and then ride them the rest of the way.
If you’re thinking you’ve already missed the boat on these teams because they are off to great starts, think again. The 32 teams in the chart combined to go 230-62 ATS (78.7 percent) the rest of the way after their first three games! It is certainly worth our while to try to lock down these teams.
Narrowing the list of potential ATS breakout teams for 2021
The chart shows several variables and characteristics of teams that have enjoyed stellar ATS seasons over the last eight years. We will look at the 2021 teams and eliminate candidates that don’t fit the shared criteria of the successful teams of the past.
Trait No. 1: Winning record after three games
Of the 32 teams in the chart, 28 had winning records after three games. That would produce a list of 80 teams for 2021.