Live On Air

Streaming Now: VSiN Overnight

play Watch Live radio Listen Live

PointsBet Releases Lines for Every 2020 NFL Regular-Season Game: Brady-less Patriots favored in 9 of first 15 games

The 2020 NFL regular season is still four months away. But that hasn't stopped some sportsbooks from posting lines for (almost) every single game on the schedule. 

Believe it or not, you can log in to several different sportsbooks right now and place a bet on any NFL regular season game, Week 1 to Week 17. (Almost any game—Week 17 doesn't have many lines because so many teams may not have a reason to play starters.) For many NFL bettors, having access to every game at your fingertips feels like being a kid in a candy store. However, betting games this early can be like walking a tight rope. You could either pick off a great number super early and be thankful you acted proactively (maybe you bet a team -3 and they end up closing at -5 by the time the game is played). Or you could see a line go completely the other way, in which case you locked yourself into a bad number (maybe you bet a team -3 and it closes at a pick'em).

One obvious reason against betting games so early is the "unknown" factor. Who can possibly predict how both teams will look when the Bears meet the Packers in Week 12? One or both teams could have major injuries by then, or even a new quarterback. You have no idea what to expect this far out. Even if you set your own lines and find an edge right now (maybe you've capped a team -6 when oddsmakers are showing -7), it can be difficult to place a bet so early because it means tying up your bankroll for the next six months or so. As a result, your liquidity decreases and you have less money to play with in the meantime.

A better idea is to exercise discipline and file these lines away for future reference. You can revert back to them throughout the season to see how lines have changed. By using these early lines as a reference point, you can gain critical insight into how oddsmakers viewed teams early on compared to how perceptions (and realities) have changed over time. 

For now, we can use these early lines as a measuring stick for how the oddsmakers view each team at this point time in time. More importantly, we can go through each team's schedule and examine the odds for each game to see how it coincides with season-long win total bets. 

For example, one of the most polarizing teams this upcoming season is the New England Patriots. Everyone seems to have an opinion on how the Pats will perform without Tom Brady. Some say they're bound for a losing season. Others still believe in the power of Belichick and think the Pats can still win the division or earn a wild-card spot with Jarrett Stidham. 

Let's cut through the noise and see what the oddsmakers say. Here are the lines for every Patriots game this regular season, courtesy of PointsBet (with links to lines for all games that week): 

Week 1: Patriots -6.5 vs Dolphins

Week 2: Patriots + 3.5 at Seahawks

Week 3: Patriots -5 vs Raiders

Week 4: Patriots + 8 at Chiefs

Week 5: Patriots -5 vs Broncos

Week 6: Bye

Week 7: Patriots + 2 vs 49ers

Week 8: Patriots + 1.5 at Bills

Week 9: Patriots -4 at Jets

Week 10: Patriots + 3.5 vs Ravens

Week 11: Patriots -1.5 at Texans

Week 12: Patriots -7 vs Cardinals

Week 13: Patriots -2.5 at Chargers

Week 14: Patriots + 1 at Rams

Week 15: Patriots -5.5 at Dolphins

Week 16: Patriots -2 vs Bills

Week 17: N/A vs Jets

A few major takeaways: Despite losing Brady, the Patriots are favored in nine of their first 15 regular season games (we don't have odds on Week 17 since it's incredibly unpredictable due to teams resting starters or mailing it in by then).

Based on the odds, New England is expected to beat the Dolphins twice, the Raiders, Broncos, Jets (at least once), Texans, Cardinals, Chargers and Bills (once). 

New England is an underdog in six games. The Pats are expected to lose to the Seahawks, Chiefs, 49ers, Bills (once), Ravens and Rams. 

Some of these lines are incredibly short and could go either way. For example, the Patriots are -1.5 favorites at the Texans and -2 vs the Bills. So one or both of those games could easily be losses based on the short odds.

However, the Patriots are only a + 1 underdog at the Rams, + 1.5 at the Bills and only + 2 vs Jimmy G and the 49ers. One, two or all three of those projected losses could turn into wins. They are practically pick'em spreads, meaning it's a virtual toss-up. 

Even with a few wins or losses going the other way, the oddsmakers are projecting New England at roughly 9-7 for the upcoming season (or possibly 10-6 if you count a Week 17 win vs the Jets). This puts the Patriots right on the mark with their regular season win total, which is set at 9 games across the market. 

At DraftKings, the Patriots are -205 favorites to make the playoffs. New England is also a slight favorite to win the AFC East at + 125, with Buffalo a close second at + 145. The Dolphins and Jets are both + 700 longshots. 

back to news



View All
  • Tuley's Takes on 2 Super teams

    Tuley's Takes on 2 Super teams

    Like everyone else, we’re excited here in the Tuley’s Takes home office for the Super Bowl matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the...
  • Is it Finau's time at Torrey Pines?

    Is it Finau's time at Torrey Pines?

    Si Woo Kim earned his third career PGA Tour victory by holding off a hard-charging Patrick Cantlay to win the American Express by one stroke at a price...
  • Ignore CBB powers for futures wagers

    Ignore CBB powers for futures wagers

    We are entering one of the most crucial periods of the sports betting calendar.   The betting public is spending two weeks focusing on Patrick...
  • NHL point projections can change quickly

    NHL point projections can change quickly

    Now that the NHL season is well underway, bank on receiving updated forecasts every week at VSiN. Projections are based on thousands of simulations, taking...
  • Jazz, Nuggets on rise, yet Pels feel love

    Jazz, Nuggets on rise, yet Pels feel love

    This week in the NBA, it’s all about streaks. The Utah Jazz are hot, and the market understands just how good this team could be. On the other hand,...
  • Down to 1 NFL game, action elsewhere

    Down to 1 NFL game, action elsewhere

    So now what? Championship Sunday is on the short list for best day on the sports calendar, along with the opening of the NCAA tournament and the NFL draft,...
  • Diving into trends for Super Bowl LV

    Diving into trends for Super Bowl LV

    Super Bowl Sunday is the sports betting world’s biggest day, regardless of which teams are competing for the Lombardi Trophy. While the Super Bowl...
  • Key ratings tell who may be NCAA threats

    Key ratings tell who may be NCAA threats

    (To view the chart with this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly) Each March I do an important exercise in which I find the shared quantitative...
  • Brady backers blur Super Bowl line

    Brady backers blur Super Bowl line

    Soon after the Super Bowl line was opened for business Sunday night, money started showing on the underdog Buccaneers. As the bets continued to flow mostly...
  • Winning big on Bucs, then turning to MLB

    Winning big on Bucs, then turning to MLB

    The Bucs beat the Packers, and I won $30,000. Going into Sunday’s NFL games, I stood to win about $35,000 on the Bucs and Chiefs winning, $59,000...
  • Yes-no Derby options fun if not enriching

    Yes-no Derby options fun if not enriching

    History — and an earlier version of this report — tell us 40 of the last 41 New Year’s Day favorites for the Kentucky Derby failed to...
  • USATSI_15472772

    Betting preview for Tuesday's NBA games

    How can we start a basketball column of any sort without mentioning the anniversary of Kobe Bryant’s passing? One of the greatest basketball players...

Google Play
App Store