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Pitchers' home/road splits hold value

We are coming up on the halfway point of the 2021 baseball season for most teams this weekend, meaning we almost certainly have enough data in the tank to make some sound observations. One of the things that has become abundantly clear is that some starting pitchers have had dramatically different results when pitching at home as compared with on the road. It is to the point that they should practically be backed automatically at one and faded consistently on the other, regardless of the opponent.
It’s not unusual for bettors to see this type of performance dichotomy when analyzing home and road stats for pitchers and hitters, but in my opinion, it is important to recognize them early in order to take advantage. You’ll get 15-20 of these pitchers every season, and the difference can stem from the type of ballpark they pitch in at home to the quality of the lineups they face at home versus on the road. In any case, these types of trends tend to build upon themselves throughout the season, as it almost becomes a mind game for pitchers.
I’m going to share the top 10 pitchers who have significant splits in their home and road performance this season. You’ll see that of the 10 pitchers, six have been far better at home than on the road, and vice versa for the other four. Keep in mind that these stats are only for 2021 and include games played through this past Sunday, June 27. This list of 10 pitchers covers all current starters who have shown a split margin of 8.0 units or more so far.
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