If you’ve been a pro football fan for any length of time, you’ve grown accustomed to seeing the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. This is their ninth trip in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era.
It’s important for bettors to note, though, that New England is a dynasty because it keeps GETTING to the Super Bowl. Once IN the Super Bowl, the Patriots haven’t established meaningful scoreboard superiority over NFC opponents.
- 2002: New England (plus 14) 20, St. Louis 17
- 2004: New England (-7) 32, Carolina 29
- 2005: New England (-7) 24, Philadelphia 21
- 2008: NY Giants (plus 12) 17, New England 14
- 2012: NY Giants (plus 3) 21, New England 17
- 2015: New England (-1) 28, Seattle 24
- 2017: New England (-3) 34, Atlanta 28 (in overtime)
- 2018: Philadelphia ( 4.5) 41, New England 33
- Composite Score: New England 202, Opponents 198
- Average Score: New England 25.25, Opponents 24.75
Six nail biters before the 8-point loss a year ago.
Belichick and Brady caught the world by surprise in 2002, beating the market by 17 points in a big upset. Since then, the Patriots are 1-6 against the spread in regulation in Super Bowls (needing overtime to cover vs. Atlanta), and it would be 0-7 ATS in regulation if not for a strategic blunder from Seattle.
Earlier this week we talked about the importance of the “key” number 3 in football betting. Results in New England Super Bowls really drive home that point. The Patriots are 5-3 straight up. Their regulation margins in those wins from low to high were 0, 3, 3, 3, and 4 points. If New England was -2.5 in those eight games, they’d have gone 4-4 vs. expectations in regulation. At -3, the mark falls to 1-5-3. The ONE TIME the Patriots won in regulation by more than 3 points is the game they should have lost to Seattle.
A case can certainly be made that “betting on the Patriots” offers value because they could win clean . . . or their coaching and experience advantages might find a way to pull another nail biter out of the fire. Though, the same could have been said last year against Philadelphia. That was also an indoor game against a young quarterback playing for an offensive guru.
Philadelphia scored 41 points on 538 yards and 7.6 yards-per-play…with touchdown drives of 77, 65, 70, 85, and 75 yards.
As we mentioned yesterday, there’s clear public sentiment betting the “dynasty” at a cheap price vs. “the team that shouldn’t even be here.” Bettors must remember that the “dynasty” doesn’t include Super Bowl domination, and the “tainted” underdog is still loaded with versatile talent. The most popular “sharp” bet in Super Bowl 53 is still Rams plus 3.