Pass on AFC, tease on NFC

Brent Musburger  
VSiN managing editor

January 18, 2019 11:12 PM

VSiN’s Point Spread Weekly sends us in two obvious directions on championship Sunday in the NFL.

Editor Steve Makinen writes that home favorites in the –3 to –6½ range have a record of 12-1 straight up and 11-2 ATS since 2005. And home teams are 10-0 straight up and 8-2 ATS in conference championship play over the last five years.

Hello, New Orleans (–3) and Kansas City (–3). What could possibly go wrong? In the case of the Kansas City Chiefs, plenty.

First of all, the Tom Brady-led New England Patriots will have a much more creative plan than the Indianapolis Colts showed up with last week. In studying the tape of the Patriots’ dismantling of the Los Angeles Chargers, there are far more schemes and wrinkles to deal with than the Chiefs had a week ago. The Patriots marched up and down the field using Julian Edelman on the edges and James White out of the backfield. No one is better at reading defensive calls than Tom Brady.

The other item missing from the Chiefs Sunday could be far more significant. Kareem Hunt no longer plays in Kansas City. But in the two games that he played against Bill Belichick, Hunt rushed for 228 yards, caught passes for 203 yards and scored four touchdowns.

If you told me that the Chiefs have someone who could replace Hunt, then I’d be all in. But they don’t, and for that reason I’m advising caution despite the trends that point us toward the Chiefs.

Instead of that game, I am concentrating my money this weekend on the NFC. My two-team, seven-point teaser takes the spread to 10 and the total to 63½, and I will go with the Rams and the under.

This week casino mogul Derek Stevens walked into the South Point carrying $100,000 in $100 bills. He bet it all on bookie Chris Andrews’s four-team prop to win the NCAA basketball tournament in March. Stevens’s four teams are Duke, Kansas, Gonzaga and his alma mater Michigan. Being the sharp bettor that he is, Derek negotiated plus 105 out of Andrews’s trustee sidekick Jimmy Vaccaro.

So in one week Stevens unveiled the new name – Circa – for his new casino under construction downtown and made the biggest bet of the college hoops season.

Cashin’ tickets is what it’s all about, and no one tries to cash bigger tickets than Derek Stevens.

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