Packers, Seahawks vying for scarce NFC playoff spots

By Jeff Fogle  (VSiN.com) 

November 14, 2018 10:36 PM

Tonight's NFL matchup (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET) featuring the Green Bay Packers (4-4-1) and the Seattle Seahawks (4-5) is already a virtual playoff game in the crowded NFC field.

Heading into the new week, 11 of 15 conference teams have won-lost records of 4-5 or better. If you assume that the current top two seeds New Orleans and the Los Angeles Rams are shoo-ins, that leaves four spots for the other NINE contenders. Neither the Packers nor the Seahawks can afford a loss.

Here’s a quick look at odds for those 11 contenders to win the NFC according to William Hill: LA Rams 130, New Orleans 140, Minnesota 8/1, Green Bay 13/1, Chicago 15/1, Carolina 17/1, Washington 25/1, Philadelphia 25/1, Dallas 35/1, Atlanta 35/1, Seattle 150/1.

Seattle sure sticks out like a sore thumb on that list. The Seahawks are basically in the “no chance” category rather than being thought of as a threat. Is that fair? Consider:

  • Seattle has played the fewest home games of any NFC team (3)
  • Seattle has played the most road games of any NFC team (6)
  • Seattle ranks #4 in NFC point differential anyway
  • Seattle has already played both games vs. the Rams

Seattle’s perception as an also-ran may be more due to early scheduling quirks than anything else. Flip a road game for a home game, maybe the record is 5-4 instead of 4-5. That would probably equate to a futures price near the 35/1 marks we see for Dallas and Atlanta. The schedule WILL flip because everyone ultimately plays eight home games and eight road games.

Based on early betting, “the market” sees Green Bay as slightly superior to Seattle. An opening line of Seahawks -2.5 has stood pat, even though home field advantage is generally worth three points in the NFL, (more in Seattle). Clearly oddsmakers and sharps agree that the Packers would be slight favorites in a neutral field meeting.

 

Can Seattle rate as “slightly worse than Green Bay” and still be good enough to reach the playoffs? It’s a tough needle the thread. Unless, Seattle proves Thursday it’s not slightly worse than Green Bay! If you believe Seattle is a value bet at -2.5 Thursday, you should probably consider taking flyers at those huge futures prices. Seattle at 5-5 with extra home games ahead isn’t 150/1 to win the NFC, even if it remains a longshot.

back to news

FREE Email Sign-Up

Get the latest sports betting news & VSiN programming updates with this free daily email from VSiN, The Sports Betting Network.

Headlines

View All
  • Zach_LaVine

    Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recaps, Circa Quarter prizes, Wednesday best bet (12/8)

    “You can’t win ‘em all.” If you were to watch games with me in the Tuley’s Takes home office or in one of the sportsbooks...
  • bama

    Early CFP Semifinals Sharp Report

    Today bettors have a loaded Wednesday slate to choose from including 13 NBA games, 4 NHL games and 50 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown...
  • USATSI_17214623

    Peterson: Best bet for Wyoming vs. Arizona

    The Wyoming Cowboys have started out the season with eight straight wins, but face their toughest test yet when they go to Tucson on Wednesday to face...
  • makinennfl

    Analyzing NFL QBs for betting success

    I have always been a football handicapper who puts a ton of stock into the quality of quarterback play. In my opinion, there is no more important position...
  • makinencbb

    Ten midmajors to watch

    The college basketball season has been up and running for nearly a month, and it’s a good time to start plotting for the rest of the season based...
  • makinencfb

    Who's hot, not ahead of bowls?

    With college bowl season opening Dec. 17, here’s a look at which bowl-bound teams are hot and which are not, as well as teams that have had big...
  • burkesurvivor

    Tricky week in survivor pools

    There are only five weeks left in the NFL regular season, but for those still alive in survivor pools, the light at the end of the tunnel is merely a...
  • burkecbb

    Why pace matters in college hoops

    A lot of early-season questions have been answered in college basketball. But as conference play kicks into gear, adjustments will be needed. There...
  • tuley

    Tuley's Takes on NFL Week 14

    NFL Week 13 was another roller-coaster ride here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but as has happened many weekends this season, teasers saved...
  • hill

    NFL capsules for Week 14

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) will be looking for their second win in five days when they...
  • appelbaum

    Five NFL games on wise guys' radar

    It was a mixed bag for NFL Week 13 bettors as favorites went 8-6 SU and 8-6 ATS. Dogs remain profitable for the season at 107-85-1 ATS (56 percent). ...
  • macneil

    NHL teams slip-sliding away

    The Canucks and Flyers fired their coaches over the weekend, and the Canucks took it a step further, firing their general manager as well. It’s...

custom-banner-3
VSiN Logo Plus

Free Trial

Make a risk-free bet on VSiN!

VSiN+ FREE TRIAL

  • Afternoon subscriber-only email with highlights and best bets from the day's programs
  • Point Spread Weekly, VSiN's digital magazine on sports betting
  • 24-7 Live video stream of VSiN programs plus replays
  • Any special sport-specified betting guides we do
  • All exclusive subscriber-only stories and data on VSiN.com
Sign Up Now
Google Play
App Store
Close