It is often said that Unders have value because the public wants to bet the Over, leading books to shade totals upward. Even if true, Overs had hit at a 55% rate over the last seven days entering Monday and at a 50.4% rate for the season, according to Covers.com.
Overs hit at less than a 45% rate in the first seven days of the season, meaning that since then, Overs are converting at closer to 50.9%.
Last season Overs hit at about 48.1% with an average total of 143.7, while the average total this season has been 139.8.
Last season 33 games had a closing total at or below 120. This year that number was 86 entering Monday. On top of that, 275 games last season had a closing total above 160. This year that was just 94.
Moving back the 3-point line has affected scoring. The average number of 3s made by each team per game last season was 7.73. This year it is 7.23. That has caused the average number of points per team per team game to drop from 72.2 to 70.6.
It appears as though bookmakers might have made too much of a correction on the early-season Under fest and lowered totals too much to account for the 3-point arc moving back.