OVERACTING TO WEEK 1

Things change fast in the NFL. Last week as I was writing this column Antonio Brown was expected to play for the Raiders on Monday Night. Then he got cut, became a Patriot and is currently getting sued. Will he play this weekend vs. the Dolphins? Does it matter? Patriots futures have overreacted to the Brown news and there is no value jumping in now. This week the Patriots to win the Super Bowl is trading around last week’s Patriots to win the AFC price.

This is what we know after week 1:

• The Patriots are the best team in the NFL

• The Browns are still the Browns

• That’s about it.

Now let’s go shopping and see what we can fnd after one week. Pinnacle currently only has Super Bowl futures listed. CRIS is not much better, but they are generously offering conference and division futures as well. CRIS has Patriots win Super Bowl 300 while Pinnacle is 379. If you must bet on a Patriots Super Bowl future at least do yourself a favor and shop for the best price.

Rams ( 500) and Saints ( 370) to win the NFC futures are attractive right now but I am going to wait a week here since they play each other on Sunday. We should see futures prices on the loser trade slightly higher next week. Again, as always shop around for the best price. Saints to win the NFC is 485 at Circa right now.

5Dimes is offering the Cowboys to win the NFC East at 138 and I’m going to add that for one unit this week, if you can bet the Cowboys to win the AFC at Circa you can get this at 155. I’m also going to bet the San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at 500 for one unit.

Next let’s go check out what Circa is offering. The MVP market hasn’t moved a ton it’s a race between Mahomes ( 525) and Brady ( 700) at the top with Aaron Rodgers ( 850), Carson Wentz ( 900) and Lamar Jackson ( 1000) rounding out the list of players with odds under 10/1. I will check back on these next week.

Offensive Rookie of the Year, Kyler Murray ( 325) is now trading higher than his preseason price. Hollywood Brown ( 1200) and TJ Hockenson ( 1000) saw big drops. And Gardner Minshew hit the board at 3000 after coming in after Nick Foles broke his collarbone. It’s a quarterbacks award to lose so I’m going to grab Kyler Murray 325 and Gardner Minshew 3000 for one unit each. Let someone else bet TJ Hockenson 1000. 

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