Our favorite Week 13 college football bets

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

November 27, 2021 09:54 AM
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The final week of the regular season has arrived. Week 13 is Rivalry Week and there are a ton of compelling games as a result. Not to mention, all of the other angles present at this time of the season. Our guys are on a 32-16-1 run over the last four weeks, so we hope to finish the regular season on a high note.

Our handicappers Adam Burke, Tim Murray, Scott Seidenberg and Wes Reynolds are here to give you their best bets for the weekend's card.

Overall record: 66-55-4 ATS

Lines are consensus odds from VSiN's college football lines page, as of Wednesday night.

Friday Nov. 26

Iowa Hawkeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1, 41.5)

1:30 p.m. ET

Burke: Walking turnover Adrian Martinez won’t play in this one for Nebraska, as the Cornhuskers take a look at the future with freshman Logan Smothers at quarterback. Nebraska is the best 3-8 team that we’ve ever seen, as they are + 70 in point differential, but still have five more losses than wins. Nebraska is also 1-7 in Big Ten play, despite outscoring opponents by seven points.

Smothers had offers from Louisville and Ole Miss, among others, and opted to join Scott Frost in Lincoln. He hasn’t gotten many reps this season, due in large part to Frost’s loyalty to Martinez, but he can’t be much worse and this line violently swung to make Iowa the favorite. Betting action has since made Nebraska the short favorite.

Speaking of bad QB play, that’s all the Hawkeyes have gotten this season. Alex Padilla will be the starter here, bringing a completion rate of 47 percent on his 83 pass attempts. Drops hurt him last week, but Iowa’s offensive line is poor and this is a team that has absolutely lived on its defense and turnover margin.

Even with all of the issues stemming from Martinez and Frost, Nebraska is 19th in the nation in yards per play on offense. They’re also 43rd in YPP allowed on defense. Nebraska’s YPP differential is + 1.29. The schemes work. The decision making in the red zone and with the turnovers has been the problem.

Iowa, meanwhile, is + 0.03 YPP, while having the fifth-ranked defense in the nation. I’ll take my chances with Nebraska here and a QB that hopefully makes better decisions with the football.

Pick: Nebraska -1

UTEP Miners at UAB Blazers (-13.5, 50.5)

2 p.m. ET

Burke: How does UAB come back from what happened last week to focus on this game? Instead of trying to get one yard to seal the victory against UTSA, Bill Clark put the game on the shoulders of his defense. The UAB defense has been an exceptional unit since the program came back in 2017, but the Roadrunners went 77 yards in seven plays in just over a minute to win the game 34-31.

That was a huge game for UAB, not only to knock off an undefeated, ranked opponent, but to also have a chance at playing for the Conference USA title next week. Instead, UAB will wait to find out its bowl fate after this game against UTEP.

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