Our best bets for every NFL Week 9 game

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

November 6, 2022 08:24 AM
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Welcome to Week 9 of the 2022 NFL season.

Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for our Monday night picks as we get closer to kickoff.

Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Thursday night. Go to VSiN.com for Betting Splits for each game and live odds across the NFL market.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-5.5, 40.5) 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Jeff Parles: It’s a far cry from a Manning-Brady matchup in Foxboro on Sunday. 

Sam Ehlinger actually played well enough to win last week against the Commanders, but the Colts defense failed late. The rest of the Colts’ season is about finding out what Ehlinger can do, but I expect this week to be a speed bump. 

The Patriots took full advantage of Zach Wilson's implosion in a 22-17 road win over the Jets last week. Mac Jones was unimpressive again and was fortunate to have a pick-six taken off the board because of a roughing-the-passer penalty. The Patriots offense was dreadful in the red zone as they had to settle for five Nick Folk field goals. The biggest takeaway was the Patriots seemingly got back to their dominance of young quarterbacks. 

I don't expect much from either of these offenses and both defenses are solid, especially against average to mediocre quarterbacks. This game will be a grinder.

Pick: Under 40.5

Buffalo Bills (-11.5, 46) at New York Jets 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Dave Tuley: Double-digit home dogs are 2-0 ATS after the Texans covered Thursday night and all double-digit dogs are now 6-4 ATS. The Bills — as great as they can be with the No. 1 offense and No. 3 defense — still have a tendency to play close games, including not covering as 10.5-point faves in their 27-17 win versus the Packers on Sunday night. Besides, the Jets (5-3 SU and ATS) have been more competitive than expected all season, including beating those same Packers 27-10 as 8-point dogs in Week 6 behind their No. 6 defense that has kept them in most games. When it comes down to it, this is mostly a play about how parity is alive and well in the NFL and there’s not this much difference between the top and bottom teams in the league (and the Jets are far from the bottom).

Pick: Jets +12.5 (South Point)

Miami Dolphins (-4, 45.5) at Chicago Bears

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Adam Burke: Is this the last time we get Justin Fields at a reasonable number for rushing yards? The DraftKings prop is set at 50.5, and he’s gone Over that number in three straight games and four of the last five, as first-time offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and rookie head coach Matt Eberflus realized the scheme needs to include Fields using his legs. His hesitancy as a passer has been a major problem, but he’s had a fair amount of time to throw. Now that he’s been instructed to take off at will, the Bears offense is starting to show signs of life.

The Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most QB rushing yards this season and an average of 5.6 yards per carry. It’s entirely possible that the Bears will have to keep pace with the explosive Dolphins, and that should play into Fields running a bit more. Sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts into the 20-25 mph range may also make it harder to throw, thus encouraging Fields to scramble.

Pick: Justin Fields Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Minnesota Vikings (-3, 43.5) at Washington Commanders

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Femi Abebefe: Five teams in the NFL have six wins or more (Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, Vikings and Bills). Based on what I’ve seen through eight weeks, I feel confident in saying Buffalo, Philadelphia and Dallas are true contenders. I also feel confident in saying the Giants, while better than anyone expected, are not contenders based on their underlying metrics.

I say all that to say this: What are we supposed to do with the Vikings? Tied for the second-best record in the league at 6-1, I don’t know what to make of this team. There are times when they’ve shown flashes of brilliance, but how can you overlook their good fortune of getting opponents that are littered with injuries?

I’m not saying Minnesota should apologize for facing backup QBs or teams with cluster injuries, but I do think those circumstances have boosted their record above what they are.

With a point differential of just +29, I think we’re going to see the Vikings regress to the negative in the second half of the season, and that’s going to start Sunday in Washington. I’m not in love with the Commanders, but I think this is the spot to fade an inflated road favorite that’s probably closer to average than good.

Pick: Commanders +3

Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 49.5) at Detroit Lions 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Adam Burke: The Packers offense hasn’t been explosive for a long time, but we overlooked that fact because they were still efficient. That isn’t really the case anymore, as their offense continues to be one of the more disappointing units in the league. The NFL average for seconds per play is 28.07, with the Packers ranked 29th at 29.76. Only the Ravens, Falcons and Titans use more clock and that’s largely because those teams run the ball a ton to protect the defense.

Green Bay has scored on 27.6% of its possessions, better than only the Steelers and Commanders. This is a lackluster, unimaginative offense handcuffed by a lack of proven talent at wide receiver. It also appears that the Packers defense is starting to crack under the weight. The Packers have only forced seven takeaways in eight games and rank around league average in yards per play allowed and Scoring% against.

The Lions have struggled mightily on defense with the most yards per play allowed in the league, but what have we seen from the Packers that would suggest they can take advantage? If the Lions defense can get a few stops, they’ll have a good chance at the outright upset.

The Lions have averaged 6.9 yards per play at home. They’ve scored 18 offensive touchdowns at home against just three on the road (with one extra home game). D’Andre Swift is back at practice and Amon-Ra St. Brown looks good to go. The Lions should be able to move the ball and keep the Packers moving in the wrong direction.

Pick: Lions +3.5

Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 49.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Femi Abebefe: Early in the week, I thought I was going to love the Chargers in this spot, coming off the bye and presumably getting healthier. However, that didn’t happen while the Bolts were away.

Pro Bowl wide receiver Keenan Allen told reporters that he re-aggravated his hamstring during the bye week and would not step on the field until he feels like he’s 100% and can play all of the snaps. That doesn’t sound like a guy who will be playing Sunday.

Couple the potential Allen absence with the Chargers’ other playmaking wide receiver, Mike Williams, being sidelined with an ankle injury, and this doesn’t look like a situation where the Chargers will be as explosive offensively as we thought they could be in the offseason.

On the other side, the Falcons might be getting all-purpose running back Cordarrelle Patterson back from short-term injured reserve. Patterson is the Falcons’ most reliable playmaker and would give them an added dimension in the ground game against the Chargers’ soft run defense.

With a depleted wide receiver room and a clear deficiency in stopping the run, I can’t justify the Chargers laying a FG on the road in the early window.

Pick: Falcons +3

Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 42.5) 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Dave Tuley: Panthers +9 was available before the Bengals’ 32-13 loss to the Browns on Monday night, though we still think anything over a TD is playable. Most bettors were already down on the Panthers and then really thought they were giving up on the season when they traded star RB Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers, but all they’ve done since then was pull off the biggest upset of the season (a 21-3 rout of the Buccaneers as 13-point underdogs) and then go toe-to-toe with the Falcons (before losing 37-34 in OT but covering as 4-point road dogs). Now they’re getting more than a TD versus a Bengals team that was already suffering from the dreaded Super Bowl-loser hangover and now is without WR Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals (4-4) still have plenty of weapons and should still win this game, but the Panthers — with D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard filling in admirably for McCaffrey — should be able to stay within one score.

Pick: Panthers +7.5

Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5, 48) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Dave Tuley: Here’s where we start the teaser portion of our Week 9 portfolio. We’re not sure how the Raiders (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) are still road favorites in this spot as they’re 2-3 SU and ATS as faves and 0-3 SU and ATS as road chalk. However, as improved as the Jaguars are in some ways, they’re still a woeful 2-5 SU and ATS themselves, so we can’t trust them taking the short number. But we feel more confident teasing them through the key numbers of 3 and 7 (“Wong teasers,” or as we like to call them, “advantage teasers”). Either way, that’s the play, and our top preference is using them with the surprising Seahawks against the Cardinals in the afternoon session.

Pick: Jaguars +7.5/Seahawks +8 Teaser

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2, 49.5) 

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

Dave Tuley: If anyone told us before the season that this Week 9 matchup would feature the first-place team in the NFC West, most of us would have assumed it would be the Cardinals. However, it’s the Seahawks (5-3 SU and ATS) atop the division and riding a three-game winning streak, including a 19-9 victory over these Cardinals three weeks ago. Seattle was a 2.5-point home dog in that game, which would usually mean they would be closer to dogs of a TD on the road, yet this line opened Cardinals -3 at DraftKings and is down to -2 (with some 1.5s) as of Thursday night. With Geno Smith (1,924 passing yards, 19 TDs, 3 INTs) running the show, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett aren’t missing Russell Wilson at all, while Kenneth Walker III has kept the ground game going despite losing Rashaad Penny. The Cardinals received a boost when WR DeAndre Hopkins returned from his six-game PED suspension, so we’re not as confident in the Seahawks covering the short spread or winning outright, but we love taking them in teasers as we can move the line up over a TD.

Pick: Seahawks +8/Rams +9 Teaser

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 42.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Dave Tuley: There are only two games in the afternoon session (not uncommon during the World Series), but we love the teasers on both dogs. The Rams and Bucs — the last two Super Bowl champions — haven’t lived up to expectations but are lucky that no one is running away with their divisions. Though they might be without star WR Cooper Kupp (questionable, ankle), the Rams seem to have the bigger upside with the No. 5 defense, a group that should pose plenty of problems for Tom Brady. Still, we’re not confident enough in the Rams to call for the cover or outright upset, but we love moving the line up over a touchdown and using them with the other afternoon game.

Pick: Rams +9/Seahawks +8 Teaser

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5, 45)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Adam Burke: The line has gone up throughout the week but that hasn’t changed my thought process. The Chiefs should roll over the Titans. Tennessee’s defensive performance against the Texans was a major outlier, as the Titans had allowed six yards per play entering the game and now face an offense much more in line with the Bills, who racked up 41 points on them in Week 2.

The Titans have not scored more than 24 points in a game and are completely one-dimensional on offense with Malik Willis at QB. Willis had 55 passing yards (and a net of 40) in the win over the Texans, as Derrick Henry got the ball 32 times and was part of a ground attack that racked up more than 300 yards. Willis is going to have to make some throws to keep pace with Kansas City.

The Titans defense has been solid against the run but very bad against the pass. Seven interceptions have saved them from being even worse. Their 14.7% TO% has limited some of the damage, but the Chiefs are taking excellent care of the football.

Game state matters here, too. If the Chiefs are able to play from in front, the Titans aren’t going to be able to rely on the run as much. That should put K.C. in a great spot, and we know they’re not going to take their foot off the gas.

Pick: Chiefs -12.5

Dave Tuley: We get a second straight double-digit dog on “Sunday Night Football” after we cashed with the Packers +11 at the Bills. Last week, we wrote how dogs were 4-1 ATS the previous five Sunday nights, so now they’re 5-1 ATS.

And now we get the Titans, who have won and covered five straight games after their 0-2 start. Granted, those wins were against the Raiders, Commanders, Texans plus the Colts twice, and the last time they faced a team with a winning record they were routed 41-7 by the Bills. However, they’re in much better form now and should be able to stay within two touchdowns.

Now, we know Chiefs coach Andy Reid is the king coming out of bye weeks, but he’s actually 5-5 ATS (including playoffs) since 2016, so oddsmakers have caught up to him (part of the reason I believe this line is so inflated). Besides, the Chiefs are 4-1 SU as favorites but just 2-3 ATS, as they failed to cover in wins over the Chargers and Raiders and those spreads were nowhere near as high as this one. There’s plenty of wiggle room for the Titans to stick around and get the cover.

Pick: Titans +12.5 

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

The Greg Peterson Experience: In NBA and college hoops, place more value on teams that emphasize low post defense. It travels much better than shooting. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Paul Howard: Seahawks Win NFC West +350. View more picks

Gill Alexander: Bengals (-6) vs. Browns. View more picks

 

 

 

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