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One more primer on betting soccer before quarterfinals

Jeff Fogle  
VSiN City newsletter

July 5, 2018 11:14 PM

World Cup resumes Friday with a pair of quarterfinal clashes. Will Brazil and France advance as favorites? Plus, more upsets at Wimbledon…Nats rally from 9-0 down…and a CFL stunner! Time to close out another busy week in VSiN City.

World Cup Soccer: Back to the pitch as quarterfinals are set for Friday and Saturday 

Let’s update betting lines for the World Cup quarterfinals. The first two games listed in each subset will be played Friday. The last two, Saturday. 

Three-ways come from the Westgate by way of the soccer odds page at our website. Goal lines that help you visualize the fractional goal differences between teams are from William Hill. Money lines to advance come from the respected Pinnacle site offshore. 

Before we get to the odds, we had a question from a reader regarding our “rolling parlay” discussion yesterday. Let’s clarify…the prices for that exercise concern “odds to advance” at the end of the game, whether it’s a victory at the end of regulation, the end of a 30-minute “extra time” tie-breaker, or at the end of penalty kicks if extra time didn’t determine a winner. DON’T USE THE THREE-WAY ODDS IN THOSE! Won’t do you any good if your chosen team plays a draw in regulation, only to advance 30-45 minutes later. The rolling parlays involve odds to advance.

The most common way to bet soccer is by use of the three-way. You are betting whether one team will win in regulation, or that there will be a draw in regulation. That’s why France and Brazil seem cheap to the uninitiated. France is only -105, and Brazil plus 100 against the sum combination that their opponents will win in regulation, or that there will be a draw. 

Three-Ways 

France -105, Uruguay plus 350, draw plus 215

Brazil plus 110, Belgium plus 255, draw plus 240

England -115, Sweden plus 375, draw plus 230

Croatia plus 120, Russia plus 280, draw plus 200

Let’s use percentage win equivalents in the France game to help new arrivals visualize…

France -105 (51% to win in regulation)

Uruguay plus 350 (22% to win in regulation)

Draw plus 215 (32% to occur in regulation)

Those add up to more than 100% because sports books create a house edge with their odds. France is basically a coin flip with the combo of Uruguay or a draw in 90 minutes plus stoppage time.  

Now, goal lines. These also only count regulation (90 minutes plus stoppage time), with bets determined before any overtime or penalty kicks might be needed. 

Goal Lines

France -0.5 goals (Uruguay -115, France -105)

Brazil -0.5 goals (Belgium -125, Brazil plus 105)

England -0.5 goals (England -115, Sweden -105)

Croatia -0.5 goals (Russia -135, Croatia plus 115)

Our final set of lines is only about advancing. Superior France would obviously be a favorite to “win” overtime if its needed against Uruguay. So, France to win straight up one way or another is a steep favorite. 

Money Lines to Advance 

France -244, Uruguay plus 214

Brazil -192, Belgium plus 172

England -312, Sweden plus 249

Croatia -185, Russia plus 167

Best of luck with your picks! We’ll run key game stats in our Monday report, along with market prices for the semifinals that will be played Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Don’t forget to watch “Russia 2018: The Tournament Show” Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons for a recap of team and individual player props from a market perspective. 

Wimbledon: Lawn poker? A pair of threes folded! No. 3 seeds Garbine Muguruza and Marin Cilic stunned Thursday at Wimbledon

We told you we’d only pop in with odds updates if there were upsets during this first week of Wimbledon 2018. Upsets every day! 

Thursday, defending ladies champion and #3 seed Garbine Muguruza lost in three sets to Alison Van Uytvanck of Belgium. No. 3 on the men’s side Marin Cilic lost a five-setter to Guido Pella of Argentina. Both Muguruza and Cilic entered the day #2 on the betting board. Needless to say, there have been some adjustments.

Here are the latest odds on the ladies side (click here to get live numbers as you read)…

Serena Williams: risk $1 to win $3.30, risk $3.50 to win $1 that she won’t win

Simona Halep: risk $1 to win $5.60, risk $6 to win $1 that she won’t win

Angelique Kerber: risk $1 to win $7.20, risk $7.60 to win $1 that she won’t win

Madison Keys: risk $1 to win $10, risk $10.50 to win $1 that she won’t win

Karolina Pliskova: risk $1 to win $13.50, risk $14.50 to win $1 that she won’t win

Thursday night prices on the men (click here for live numbers)… 

Roger Federer: risk $1 to win $1.08, risk $1.12 to win $1 that he won’t win

Novak Djokovic: risk $1 to win $5.80, risk $6 to win $1 that he won’t win

Rafael Nadal: risk $1 to win $6.80, risk $7.20 to win $1 that he won’t win

Juan Martin del Potro: risk $1 to win $12.50, risk $13 to win $1 that he won’t win

Popular del Potro crashed the board after playing some of his best grass court tennis ever in a rout of Feliciano Lopez. 

Be sure to watch VSiN broadcasts Thursday morning for the latest from the lawns. 

MLB Thursday: Nationals rallies from 9-0 down, Brewers bash Braves

So, at the players only meeting yesterday…the Washington Nationals said to themselves, “Let’s try this…it will be hilarious…we’ll fall behind Miami 9-0 Thursday night, causing endless hand-wringing on twitter…then rally ALL THE WAY BACK TO WIN!”

Washington (-205) 14, Miami 12 

Total Bases Plus Walks: Miami 27, Washington 28

Starting Pitchers: Lopez 5 IP, 5 ER, Hellickson 4 IP, 8 ER

Bullpen: Miami 3 IP, 9 ER, Washington 5 IP, 3 ER

The kind of game where it takes half-an-hour to double and triple check that I got TB W correct. Should have been more like a 7-all tie (dividing offensive bases by four). Things were incredibly well clustered for both attacks. 

It’s tempting to call this the night that saved Washington’s season. Problem is, the Nats scored 17 in a blowout of Philadelphia last week then lost five in a row. Good sign the team responded to that early 9-0 deficit. Washington is back to .500 at 43-43. Miami way off the pace…and only appearing in one of our summaries because we’ve been following the Nats demise of late. 

Milwaukee (even) 7, Atlanta 2

Total Bases Plus Walks: Atlanta 7, Milwaukee 18

Starting Pitchers: Fried 3 IP, 4 ER, Chacin 7 IP, 2 ER

Bullpen: Atlanta 5 IP, 3 ER, Milwaukee 2 IP, 0 ER

Milwaukee also clustered its bases well tonight, enjoying a pair of three-run innings in what normally would have been more like a 4-2 or 5-2 victory with that production. Brewers improve on their NL-leading record, now 52-35. Braves fall to 49-37, just a game in front of Philadelphia. Not exactly a passed test this week for Atlanta…though visiting the Yankees and Brewers in succession isn’t a piece of cake. Fourth straight win for the Brewers off the sweep of Minnesota. 

In other Thursday action…

*Texas (pick-em) won at Detroit 7-5. That’s now 2-14 for the Tigers their last 16 games. 

*Houston (-330) beat the Chicago White Sox 4-3. Thanks to two runs in the bottom of the ninth inning! Houston is 0-6-1 to the Under the past week. A lot of Washington-Houston money line parlays saved by rallies this evening. 

*Minnesota (-145) beat Baltimore 5-2, Orioles now 1-10 their last 11 as they seem intent on compiling resources for the future. Will be interesting to see how dark it gets for the bottom 5-6 teams in the second half of the season now that it’s okay to go 50-112 as long as you have a five-year plan.  

WNBA: Minnesota avenges two defeats to Los Angeles with double digit win

It’s usually great television when these two WNBA elites square off. Minnesota had double-revenge on its mind…which helped keep the margin comfortable for the hosts in the fourth quarter. 

Minnesota (-3.5) 83, Los Angeles 72 

2-point Pct: Los Angeles 48% Minnesota 46%

3-pointers: Indiana 6/20, Minnesota 8/13

Free Throws: Indiana 10/13, Minnesota 17/18

Rebounds: Indiana 27, Minnesota 33

Turnovers: Indiana 9, Minnesota 14

Maya Moore’s shooting slump continued, just 2 of 13 from the field. Sylvia Fowles picked her up with 10 of 11 shooting and 27 points. Key for the Lynx was sharpshooting from long range and more success from the free throw line. Minnesota moves to 11-7 on the season. Los Angeles is 12-7. Both trail Phoenix and Seattle in the loaded Western Conference. 

In other Thursday action: Washington (-8.5) beat New York 86-67, Dallas (-10) beat Indiana 90-63 (making it seem even more miraculous that Indiana won at Minnesota earlier this week), Phoenix (-6.5) beat Connecticut 84-77, Las Vegas (-4.5) beat Chicago 84-80. 

Here’s an update of our estimated “market” Power Ratings for the WNBA based on Thurday night’s line, using a standard three points for home court advantage.

85: Minnesota, Los Angeles

83: Phoenix, Washington, Seattle

80: Dallas

79: Connecticut, Atlanta

77: New York (but playing worse)

75: Las Vegas

74: Chicago

73: Indiana

CFL: Hamilton upset due to turnovers

Hamilton posted yardage blowouts the past two weeks in easy wins over Winnipeg and Edmonton. It was more of the same Thursday vs. Saskatchewan…except the part about the easy win!

Saskatchewan (plus 6) 18 Hamilton 13 

Total Yardage: Hamilton 429, Saskatchewan 298

Yards-per-Play: Hamilton 7.1, Saskatchewan 7.1

Rushing Yards: Hamilton 95, Saskatchewan 150

Passing Stats: Hamilton 23-43-1-333, Saskatchewan 14-19-0-148 

Turnovers: Hamilton 2, Saskatchewan 1

Saskatchewan has been forced to play conservatively after losing quarterback Zach Collaros to injury. Its only touchdown in the first three quarters was a defensive fumble recovery. That was enough to hold a fourth quarter lead because Hamilton wasn’t turning all of its yards into many points. Down 13-12 fairly late, the Roughriders busted a long run to steal the win. 

Jeremiah Masoli had another big passing game in terms of yardage. But the problem with falling in love with a young arm is that turnovers can be a problem on the road or vs. top defenses. After throwing just 11, 10, and 10 incomplete passes in his first three starts, Masoli blew up to 20 here, along with the fumble that was recovered for Saskatchewan’s early touchdown. In our Arena Football coverage over in Point Spread Weekly, we’ve talked about the hidden importance of passing accuracy. Even though Hamilton won passing yardage 333-148, it “lost” incomplete passes 20-5. You’ll be surprised how much something like that matters once you start paying attention to it. 

Both teams leave the game 2-2. Hamilton’s played better than that…but you’ve got to take care of business in spots like this. Saskatchewan last to horrible Montreal last week! 

This weekend’s remaining schedule…

Friday: Ottawa (-7) at Montreal

Saturday: Edmonton (-3) at Toronto (James Franklin makes first QB start)

Saturday: British Columbia (plus 6) at Winnipeg

Bye: Calgary

We’ll run stat summaries from those games for you on Monday. Here’s an update of our estimated “market” Power Ratings based on this week’s point spreads. 

85: Calgary

84: Hamilton

83: Edmonton

82: Ottawa

80: Winnipeg (with Streveler) 

77: British Columbia

76: Toronto (with Franklin)

75: Saskatchewan (backup QBs)

72: Montreal

Have a great weekend!

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