It's been a swift and steady fall from grace for the Jacksonville Jaguars over the past three seasons. In 2017, Jacksonville finished 10-6, won the AFC South and looked poised for a Super Bowl appearance. The Jags beat the Bills 10-3 in the Wild Card round, took down Pittsburgh 45-42 in the Divisional Round and then held a 20-10 fourth quarter lead over the Patriots in the AFC Championship, only to lose in heartbreaking fashion 24-20.
The Jags have gone 11-21 since that title game loss to New England, finishing 5-11 in 2018 and 6-10 last season.
It has been a relatively quiet offseason for Jacksonville. They kept head coach Doug Marrone and brought in former Redskins head coach Jay Gruden as their new Offensive Coordinator. The Jags traded away quarterback Nick Foles along with defensive linemen Calais Campbell, while also signing the talented but oft-injured tight end Tyler Eifert. In the Draft the Jags loaded up on defense, selecting Florida cornerback CJ Henderson and LSU linebacker K'Lavon Chaisson in the first round.
The Jags could be in for another long season in 2020. Jacksonville's win total is 4.5, the lowest of any team in the NFL. The next closest teams are the Redskins, Bengals and Panthers at 5.5.
Circa Sports is hanging the Jags win total at 4.5 with -115 over juice (under -105). DraftKings is at 4.5 with even -110 juice on both sides. Interestingly, both FanDuel and PointsBet are slightly higher than the overall market, offering a win total of 5 but with massive -165 under juice (+ 140 and + 130 on the over).
Reading between the lines, it looks like the oddsmakers have the Jags pegged at 4-12 or 5-11 this season.
If you're looking for a reason to take the over 4.5, the Jaguars schedule isn't terribly difficult this season. Their 2020 opponents went a combined 126-129-1 (.494) in 2019, which gives the Jacksonville the 11th-easiest schedule in the NFL.
Here's the full Jags schedule in 2020
Week 1: vs Colts
Week 2: at Titans
Week 3: vs Dolphins
Week 4: at Bengals
Week 5: at Texans
Week 6: vs Lions
Week 7: Bye
Week 8: at Chargers
Week 9: vs Texans
Week 10: at Packers
Week 11: vs Steelers
Week 12: vs Browns
Week 13: at Vikings
Week 14: vs Titans
Week 15: at Ravens
Week 16: vs Bears
Week 17: at Colts
Don't expect the Jags to make the postseason. Jacksonville is a -1430 favorite to miss the playoffs at DraftKings and a + 800 longshot to make the playoffs.
The Jaguars are + 2000 to win the AFC South. The Colts are the favorite at + 130 followed by the Titans at + 150 and Texans at + 350.
Jacksonville is + 7000 to win the AFC and + 15000 to win the Super Bowl, both are the worst odds overall.
In terms of player props, Leonard Fournette's over/under rushing yard total is 900.5 at DraftKings. Last season Fournette rushed for 1,152 yards.
Chaisson is + 2000 to win Defensive Rookie the Year, trailing Chase Young + 200, Isaiah Simmons + 500, Patrick Queen + 900, Kenneth Murray + 1100 and Jeffrey Okudah + 1600. Chaisson's teammate Henderson is + 3300.
The elephant in the room when discussing the Jaguars is whether or not they are tanking for Clemson star quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Garder Minshew enters the season as Jacksonville's starting quarterback but with the lowest win total of any team in the NFL, the smart move would be to tank (without admitting it, of course).
Lawrence is a -305 favorite to be drafted first overall in 2021, followed by Justin Fields + 350 and Penei Sewell + 400.
In case you were wondering, the Jags are + 1200 to sign Cam Newton. The Patriots remain the favorite at + 400.