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Odds, trends for Final Four

By Steve Makinen  ( 


(To view the charts associated with this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly)

The NCAA tournament wraps up with the Final Four on Saturday and the championship game Monday. It’s a unique field, with a variety of conferences, seeds, expected teams and surprises. Certainly the biggest shocker came out of the East Region, where UCLA advanced from a First Four team to a Final Four team by winning five games, including knocking off the top two teams in the region. The other three teams are not completely unexpected and, from a season-long power rating perspective, are deserving of a shot at a title. The point spreads set up for the semifinals don’t exactly ooze drama, with Gonzaga and Baylor expected to meet Monday night in the final. But as we’ve seen over the last two weeks, anything can happen. Let’s look at the futures market and how it relates to my four sets of strength ratings, as well as readdress some of the trends that were posted in the VSiN tournament guide that will be in play for the upcoming weekend.


DraftKings odds to win each region

For the third straight week, I’m including a chart of the percentage chances to reach the championship game per my strength ratings sets. I have updated them all based on the current bracket and the teams’ ratings after the second weekend of tourney action. If you’ve come to trust one rating over another, I encourage you to use that analysis in comparing with the odds offered by DraftKings. Again, though, I have taken the average of the four ratings sets to come up with one overall percentage chance for each team to reach each round.

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