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N.J. sports betting to start Thursday finally

Jeff Fogle  
VSiN City newsletter

Sports betting begins soon in New Jersey…a golf major begins soon in New York…a global soccer celebration begins soon in Russia…and the baseball money-go-round never slows down. Fasten your seat belts as we jet around the sports wagering world…your departure from VSiN City takes off now!

Sports Betting: Governor Phil Murphy’s signature clears the way for sports betting in New Jersey
Delaware was the first state outside of Nevada to join the fun last week. New Jersey joins this week, after Governor Phil Murphy signed a new bill into law Monday afternoon. It’s expected sports betting will start this Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET at Monmouth Park racetrack, just in time for soccer’s World Cup and US Open golf (which will be held in nearby Shinnecock, New York). Other locales will be ready soon.

The law allows betting on pro, college and international sports. But it does prohibit betting on high school sports, or any event involving a New Jersey-based college team (like Rutgers in football or basketball, or Seton Hall and NJIT in basketball)…or on any college event taking place in the state of New Jersey. 

Online betting won’t begin in New Jersey for 30 days. 

More details in these linked articles…
From the New York Post
From nj.com
From Philly.com
From David Purdum at ESPN

We’re still a long way away from national access to sports betting. Though Delaware and New Jersey have acted quickly, the number of states may still be in single digits by the time football season arrives. 

For all of you in New Jersey, New York, Delaware and big cities within driving distance who are just finding out about us…welcome to VSiN!

U.S. Open Golf: Dustin Johnson a clear favorite in global markets
You regulars know we like checking in with global exchange prices in major golf tournaments. They often give you a better sense of “true” odds because of increased liquidity and the balancing factor of “No” bets. The fact that exchange investors can bet that a player WON’T win a tournament helps anchor odds more accurately.

Here’s a link to the current Betfair exchange prices. The numbers you see as you click will be slightly different than those in our discussion below, as you’re going to a live link that’s been updated since our publication deadlines. Focus on the “blue” and “pink” columns. A reminder of what they mean…

Back all (in blue): for betting on that player to win. Your $1 stake is included in the number you see. So, if you see a 20 in blue, that means the player returns 19 to 1.

Lay all (in pink): for betting that the player WON’T win. Your $1 victory is included (as you have to lay a steep price). If you see a 20 in pink, that means you have to lay $19 to win $1.

Here’s where the top contenders stood late Monday night. You’ll see that Dustin Johnson, who regained his official World #1 ranking last week, is well clear of the field.  

Dustin Johnson: $1 earns $9.50 if he wins, risk $10 to earn $1 that he won’t
Rory McIlroy: $1 earns $16 if he wins, risk $16.50 to earn $1 that he won’t
Justin Rose: $1 earns $16.50 if he wins, risk $17 to earn $1 that he won’t
Justin Thomas: $1 earns $17 if he wins, risk $17.50 to earn $1 that he won’t
Jason Day: $1 earns $19 if he wins, risk $20 to earn $1 that he won’t
Rickie Fowler: $1 earns $20 if he wins, risk $21 to earn $1 that he won’t
Jordan Spieth: $1 earns $23 if he wins, risk $24 to earn $1 that he won’t
Jon Rahm: $1 earns $23 if he wins, risk $24 to earn $1 that he won’t
Tiger Woods: $1 earns $24 if he wins, risk $25 to earn $1 that he won’t
Brooks Koepka: $1 earns $28 if he wins, risk $29 to earn $1 that he won’t

Some nice payoffs for golf superstars in the mix, granting that a 156-player field creates wide open possibilities. This is why many sharps avoid futures prices at US locales. In an exchange, you can get 20/1 odds on Jordan Spieth, or 24/1 odds on Tiger Woods. Also, if you’re convinced a particular golfer has no chance to win on this course or in these weather conditions (or a collection of individual golfers), you can try to vacuum up some loose change with riskier “No” bets. 

Be sure you watch VSiN broadcast coverage through the week for tournament analysis and betting tips from our popular tee-to-green contributors. 

World Cup: VSiN debuts a special daily soccer broadcast, plus global exchange odds
Hope you caught today’s first edition of “Russia 2018: the Tournament Show” on VSiN. It could also be called the “You Won’t Catch Us Violating Global Copyrights” show. YOU know what event we’re talking about!

Click here to watch a replay if you missed the debut. Remember to scroll down for the video, as our regular feed runs across the top of the page. Sam Panayotovich and Amal Shah hosted the Monday hour with special guest Tommy Smyth. A great intro to World Cup betting. This will be a daily feature through the tournament. 

We just ran the Betfair exchange odds for the US Open. Let’s do the same thing for the top contenders in the 2018 World Cup. Exchanges in soccer also have more liquidity than futures betting in the US. And, that “No” option also has a balancing influence. 

Here are the win/won’t win numbers for the top eight contenders Monday evening.

Brazil: $1 earns $4.40 to win, risk $4.50 to earn $1 that they won’t win
Germany: $1 earns $5 to win, risk $5.20 to earn $1 that they won’t win
Spain: $1 earns $6.40 to win, risk $6.60 to earn $1 that they won’t win
France: $1 earns $7.20 to win, risk $7.40 to earn $1 that they won’t win
Argentina: $1 earns $10 to win, risk $10.50 to earn $1 that they won’t win
Belgium: $1 earns $11.50 to win, risk $12 to earn $1 that they won’t win
England: $1 earns $18 to win, risk $18.50 to earn $1 that they won’t win
Portugal: $1 earns $26 to win, risk $27 to earn $1 that they won’t win

Not a big divergence from widely available futures prices in Nevada up at the top. Still a case for many of those where waiting until the Knockout round and then rolling over bets on your favorite choice will likely provide a bigger return. 

Differences become much more notable further down the table.

Check out some of these longshots…
Croatia: $1 earns $37 to win, risk $39 to earn $1 that they won’t win
Colombia: $1 earns $49 to win, risk $54 to earn $1 that they won’t win
Russia: $1 earns $69 to win, risk $74 to earn $1 that they won’t win
Denmark: $1 earns $99 to win, risk $129 to earn $1 that they won’t win
Mexico: $1 earns $179 to win, risk $189 to earn $1 that they won’t win
Peru: $1 earns $189 to win, risk $199 to earn $1 that they won’t win

The longer the shot, the more you make for your risk on global exchanges. That’s particularly true for the longest shots in the event. Teams that will pay around 300-1 in the US (with virtually NO chance to win four times in the Knockout brackets even if they do miraculously reach the final 16) are just a buck shy of 1,000 to one at Betfair’s exchange. 

Longest shots
Tunisia: $1 earns $999 to win
Panama: $1 earns $999 to win
Saudi Arabia: $1 earns $999 to win

Tomorrow, our Wednesday tutorial will discuss how three-way betting works. Sam and Amal talked about that on today’s show. We’ll work through the numbers for you in more depth tomorrow right here in VSiN City. 

MLB Monday: Anthony Rizzo homers in the top of the 11th to put Cubs into first place
One big game in the Majors Monday night. Milwaukee began the night with a half-game lead over the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. Those two teams began a three-game series in Brew Crew country.

Chicago Cubs (-120) 7, Milwaukee 2 (in 11 innings)
Total Bases Plus Walks: Chicago 20, Milwaukee 18
Starting Pitchers: Quintana 6 IP, 2 ER, Guerra 6 IP, 1 ER
Bullpen: Chicago 5 IP, 0 ER, Milwaukee 5 IP, 6 ER

Milwaukee led 2-1 in the eighth inning. Jason Heyward tied it with an RBI single. Anthony Rizzo put the Cubs ahead for good with a solo shot in the top of the 11th before the floodgates opened and more runs came home. Condolences to all of you who had Under 8! 

Chicago is back in first place in the NL Central after a slower than expected start. Chicago’s 38-25 record is 0.5 games better than Milwaukee’s 39-27. Cubs and Brewers go head-to-head again Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon. 

Two more series matching teams with winning records begin Tuesday. Let’s preview those.

MLB: Stat previews for Washington at the NY Yankees and Houston at Oakland
We’ll start with the potential World Series preview in a high-profile Interleague series. Just two games for the Nationals and Yankees.

Washington at the New York Yankees
Offense (wRC ): Washington #20, NYY #1
Bullpen ERA: Washington #12, NYY #5
Ballpark: Yankee Stadium was the #7 ranked hitters’ park in baseball this season after Sunday’s action. It’s increased offense 14% thus far. But, surprisingly, home runs are down 1% in NYY home games compared to road games at this stage of the 2018 campaign. 

Weighted Runs Created-Plus adjusts for ballpark and league, so Washington’s offense has been disappointing this season at less than full strength. The Yankees have the best offense in all of baseball, even after you account for the 14% increase in offense in the Bronx this season. The Yankees have the better bullpen ERA, and are often rock solid when protecting late leads.  Before you study starting pitching, clear edges for the Bombers. 

Probable Starting Pitchers
Tuesday: Roark (4.17 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP) vs. Sabathia (4.46 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP)
Wednesday: Undecided vs. Gray (4.39 xFIP, 1.46 WHIP)

Washington will have a chance to strike early based on those xFIP numbers for the Yankees starters. If you’re not familiar with the stat, that’s a representation of “fielding independent” pitching that normalizes home run counts. It’s arranged to fall on a scale similar to ERA for easy digestion. Studies have shown it has more predictive accuracy moving forward than traditional ERA. 

Sabathia is -155 over Roark with a total of 9.5 on the early line for Tuesday’s meeting. 

Houston at Oakland
Offense (wRC ): Houston #3, Oakland #12
Bullpen ERA: Houston #4, Oakland #8
Ballpark: Oakland was the #1 pitchers’ park in baseball this season after this past weekend’s action, surging past Houston’s own Minute Maid park for that honor. Offense is down a whopping 31% at the Oakland Coliseum this year when you compare A’s home games to road games (compared to 14% at Minute Maid). 

Houston has the better offense, which is no surprise. Oakland is a legitimate .500 caliber team based on a cross-section of stats. The A’s do have a positive run differential for the season entering this important series. 

Probable Starting Pitchers
Tuesday: McCullers (3.55 xFIP, 1.19 WHIP) vs. Mengden (4.11 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP)
Wednesday: Cole (2.68 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP) vs. Blackburn (3.19 xFIP, 0.50 WHIP)
Thursday: Verlander (3.51 xFIP, 0.76 WHIP) vs. Montas (4.08 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP)

Blackburn has only had one start for the A’s. He’s not Vida Blue. It’s better to pencil in something in the fours and low one’s for him as well until he shows success in a larger sample size. Cole and Verlander have fantastic WHIPS. Those could be vulnerable on the road because of better hitting visibility than Houston. But, Oakland’s been so tough to hit that either guy could have shutout or even no-hit potential at this site. Let’s see how low the Over/Unders go.  

McCullers is -135 over Mengden with a total of 8 on the early Tuesday line. 

WNBA: Updating our estimated “market” Power Ratings 
We’ll continue updating our estimate of “market” Power Ratings in the WNBA on Tuesdays for the time being. No results from Monday night to discuss. Home court advantage is generally worth three points in the WNBA. This gives you a sense of how the market currently views the totem pole at the moment. Remember that day-to-day lines can fluctuate because of injuries to key players. 

87: Connecticut
85: Los Angeles
84: Minnesota
82: New York, Phoenix
81: Seattle, Washington
80: Dallas, Atlanta
74: Indiana
74: Chicago
73: Las Vegas

Minnesota is still a disappointing 3-6 straight up, 1-9 against the spread. The Lynx were supposed to dominate this season. Connecticut is off to the best start…7-1 straight up and 5-3 ATS. Los Angeles has the best ATS record at 5-2. 

VSiN Business Center
*Click here to sign up for a calendar year of our Point Spread Weekly digital publication at a great price. A paid subscription of $149.99 takes you into June of 2019. Note that VSiN City will be authoring a special “Total Handicapping” article each week that focuses on Over/Unders which is exclusively available in PSW. This week we’ll talk about traps to avoid when betting Overs in early group play in soccer’s World Cup. We’re also providing weekly boxscore analysis for Arena Football League action. See the keys to both upsets from this past weekend.  

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Back Wednesday as the countdown continues to the World Cup and US Open. 

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