After last week’s college football stability mismatches produced a sterling record of 7-2 ATS to run the season mark to 12-7 ATS (63.2%), let’s look at the Week 3 plays that qualify under my system, which quantifies teams’ stability levels. These will be the final plays for the system this season, as I believe oddsmakers will catch up after this week, as they typically do.
If you missed the explanation and other details about the stability method or are new to VSiN, just check Season 5, Issue 2 of Point Spread Weekly or our 2021 College Football Betting Guide. You can download the report from either issue.
The stability system, which I’ve employed for 10 seasons without a losing campaign, measures one team’s stability against another’s. Using a time-tested point-assigning process for coaches, quarterbacks and returning starters, I come up with an overall stability score for each team. When the difference between these scores is 8 or higher, I consider it a stability mismatch.
It’s important to note that the difference in stability scores has nothing to do with the point spread for a given game. I am simply assuming that oddsmakers have not given enough credence to the stability difference and that their lines are off because of it.
I have put together a list of the top stability mismatches for Week 3. Again, this will be the last week I will offer plays, as I typically believe that after two or three games, the lines more accurately reflect teams’ strength. But history has shown that you should feel comfortable employing this strategy for this final week.