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Nine Week 1 CFB stability mismatches

By Steve Makinen  (VSiN.com) 

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(To view the charts accompanying this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly.)

I have employed a strategy I call College Football Stability Mismatches for about 10 years, and I steadfastly believe in its foundational principles. To me this is a winning strategy, and the more of this type of logic you come to rely on in your own handicapping, the more successful you will be. Let’s look at what makes for a stability mismatch.

Having worked with people on both sides of the betting window for many years, I have found that the amount of preseason preparation people take on can vary greatly from book to book and bettor to bettor. Because of this, we might see huge misses in those setting the numbers. Doing early homework has become one of the most important aspects for college football bettors hoping to enjoy successful campaigns. Bettors who scour betting publications, such as the VSiN College Football Betting Guide, before the season tend to be best prepared when Week 1 rolls around.

For many reasons, a program’s prospects can change dramatically from one season to the next. Among them are the four-year eligibility rules, the pressure on coaching staffs and players’ off-the-field transgressions. This results in significant year-to-year turnover on the field and on the sidelines. Bettors expecting to see the same thing they watched from a team at the end of the previous season are often startled at the change. After the impact of COVID-19, the number of factors affecting teams’ stability levels in 2021 is greater than ever.

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