Tuley: Tuesday NHL Best Bets, Monday recaps, early XFL Week 4 pick

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

March 7, 2023 08:09 AM


Tuesday Best Bets, Monday Recaps

Monday was spent mostly following college basketball conference tournaments in the Tuley’s Takes home office, with the weekly diversion of taking my son to his Las Vegas Youth Orchestra practice with some NHL thrown in for good measure.

It was a long day as it took a long time waiting for our Best Bet on San Francisco +15 vs. Gonzaga, which didn’t tip off until 11:45 p.m. ET/8:45 p.m. Vegas Time. But even though we looked doomed as Gonzaga jumped out to a 12-2 lead in the first 3:16 to effectively erase the spread, San Francisco then started to hit some 3-pointers and Gonzaga helped by missing a bunch of 3’s when it could have just pounded the ball inside and coasted to victory.

San Francisco actually put a scare into Gonzaga as the Dons pulled within 2 points at 56-54 with 12:05 left, but then went cold and it looked like they might blow the cover before holding on for the 84-73 spread-covering final score.

I did lose my preferred NHL play on the Jets -1.5 +110 vs. the Sharks. We got the empty net we wanted but instead of scoring the puck-line covering goal, the Jets allowed the Shars to tie the game with 10 seconds remaining and – I’m sure regular bettors will understand my wish that they would lose the game since they weren’t going to cover for me then lost 3-2 in overtime.

At least I hit my Oilers-Sabres/Predators-Canucks 1P Over parlay at +162 for a nice profit on the day coupled with the San Francisco cover. That was hardly a sweat as the Sabres and Oilers each scored in the first 9:45 of their game, and then the Predators and Canucks made it even easier as both scored in the 4:55 of their game.

Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s action in the major team sports and then look for plays on Tuesday. We were hoping for more college b-ball action, but Gonzaga and St, Mary’s are both solidly in the NCAA field and I didn’t find any dogs in the other tourneys (closest was NC Wilmington +9 vs. College of Charleston, in the Colonial title game, but I’d feel better if COC was a lock for an at-large bid and that doesn’t appear to be the case).

Monday Recaps

NBA: Favorites swept 6-0 SU Monday night, but underdogs led 4-2 ATS as the Celtics (+8 in 118-114 OT loss at Cavaliers), Raptors (+6.5 in 118-113 loss at Nuggets), Pacers (+6 in 147-143 loss at 76ers) and Hawks (+2.5 in 130-128 loss at Heat) all covered in SU losses. Home teams led 4-2 SU but split 3-3 ATS. Overs led 4-2 

More NBA: On the season, favorites improved to 631-330 SU with 15 games closing pick-'em, but underdogs still lead 475-463-23 (50.6%). Home teams lead 577-399 SU and 498-457-21 ATS (52.1%). In totals wagering, Overs improved their slim lead to 488-474-14 (50.7%).

CBB: No. 9 Gonzaga beat San Francisco 84-73 late Monday, but the ViewFromVegas is the Bulldogs did NOT cover after closing as 14.5-point faves. No. 16 Saint Mary's held off BYU 76-69 and covered vs. the closing line as 6.5-point faves (though most bettors pushed on plus- or minus-7 most of the day).

NHL: Underdogs went 4-2 Monday. The outright upsets were by the Blackhawks (+214 in 5-0 win vs. Senators), Sharks (+170 in 3-2 OT win at Jets), Flames (+115 in 5-4 win at Stars) and Canucks (-105 in 4-3 shootout win vs. Predators). Home/road teams split 3-3. Unders led 4-2.

Tuesday NHL Best Bets

Flyers-Lightning 1P Over 1.5 -150 / Ducks-Kraken 1P Over -150 +178 (parlay pays +178): Embolden by getting back on the winning track with our 1P Over parlays, we’ll go with this one on Tuesday as the Flyers (the No. 7 1P Over team, according to @PSUOtto on Twitter) and Lightning combine for 71-55 (56.8%) with 1P Overs while the Ducks and Kraken (the No. 4 and 5 1P Over teams, respectively) combine for 76-48 (61.9%).

Flyers +1.5 +105 at Lightning: I''ll also make this bet on the puck line as it's a "mini-swagger play" on the Flyers, who snapped a 4-game losing streak on Sunday and play the Lightning, who have lost 5 straight. Another potential play is the Sharks +1.5 +120 at the Avalanche after snapping their 5-game skid vs. the Jets, but I still don’t trust the Sharks.

XFL Week 4 Best Bet

San Antonio Brahmas +3 at Seattle Sea Dragons: San Antonio let us down on Sunday night, but that was against the league’s top team in Houston and now the Brahmas get a step down in class against Seattle, which picked up its first victory against a winless Vegas team (and needed a spectacular play from Josh Gordon or they’d be 0-3). Circa opened this line Sunday night and I actually think the wrong team is favored. Despite a 1-2 record, San Antonio is tied for No. 2 in scoring defense at 17.3 points a game while Seattle allows the third-worst at 22.7. We jumped the gun too soon on this as the line has gone up to Seattle -4.5 as of early Tuesday morning, but that’s OK as we love being contrarian and will bet it again at the best number we can get.


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