Monday Best Bets, Sunday Recaps
Sunday was another extremely busy sports betting day with the regular NBA and NHL cards, plus some college basketball and XFL as well as golf, auto racing and even boxing.
I didn’t get involved in the Tommy Fury upset of Jake Paul as a +160 underdog or the golf tourneys, though I did hit Kyle Busch at +850 and +800 in the Pala Casino 400 at Fontana. I wish I had posted it here as an official play, but it has me excited with NASCAR coming here to Las Vegas next weekend as I’ll give a few picks in the Las Vegas 400 (I usually take one of the contenders plus 2-3 long shots that I use with smaller bets, but more on that later in the week).
As for Sunday’s official Best Bet, I won that with Blue Jackets-Wild 1P Under 1.5 +110 cashing as we were coasting with a scoreless tie for the first 16:20 of the opening period and had to hang on. We also hit out secondary play on the Islanders-Jets 1P Under 1.5 +105 as that was more of a sweat as the Islander scored 7:56 into the period, but we held on there, too.
I did lose my XFL play on the San Antonio Brahmas-Orlando Guardians Under 39 (we locked in early and felt good when it was bet down to 37, but lost as the Guardians won 30-12 in the only XFL game to go Over on the weekend.
Anyway, let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s action in the major team sports and then look for a Best Bet for Monday.
Sunday Recaps
CBB: Maryland beat No. 21 Northwestern 75-59, but it wasn’t an upset as the Terrapins covered as 7-point home faves. No. 4 UCLA beat Colorado 60-56, but didn’t cover as 7-point road fave. No. 20 Providence beat Georgetown 88-68 and covered as 6.5-point road chalk.
NBA: Faves went 8-1 SU Sunday and 6-2-1 ATS with the push in the Bucks’ (-3) 104-101 win vs. the Suns for their 14th straight victory. The lone upset was by the Lakers (+4.5) rallying from a 27-point deficit to beat Mavericks 111-108. The Nets (+6.5) covered in a 129-127 loss at the Hawks. The Nuggets (-4) covered in a 134-124 win vs. the Clippers thanks to OT as L.A. backers suffered a bad beat. Home teams went 7-2 SU and 5-3-1 ATS. Unders led 6-3.
More NBA: Faves improved to 593-309 SU on the season with 15 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still hold a slim lead at 446-434-22 ATS (50.7%). Home teams lead 549-368 SU and 473-424-20 ATS (52.7%). In totals wagering, Overs’ lead dipped to 457-446-14 (50.6%).
NHL: Faves went 5-1 Sunday with Lightning-Penguins closing pick-’em. The lone upset was by the Islanders (+125 in 4-0 shutout at Jets). The Sabres (-115), Wild (-300), Rangers (-165), Predators (-170) and Maple Leafs (-150) won as chalk. Home teams went 4-3. Overs led 4-3.
XFL: Houston Roughnecks beat the Arlington Renegades 23-14 to wrap up XFL Week 2, covering as 4.5-point home favorites (stayed Under 40 points). Earlier Sunday, San Antonio Brahmas beat Orlando Guardians 30-12, covering as 4-point road faves (went Over 37).
More XFL: Faves went 2-0 SU and ATS on Sunday, split 2-2 SU and ATS in Week 2, and lead 5-3 SU overall but are tied 4-4 ATS. Home/road teams split 1-1 SU and ATS on Sunday, road teams led 3-1 SU and ATS in Week 2, tied 4-4 SU overall with road teams leading 5-3 ATS. Over/Unders split 1-1 Sunday, Unders led 3-1 in Week 2, tied 4-4 overall.
Monday NHL Best Bet
Red Wings-Senators 1P Over 1.5 -150 / Canucks-Stars 1P Over 1.5 -140 (parlay pays +186): After a few days with more 1P Under plays available, we return with a 1P Over parlay as we get two Top 10 1P Over teams with the Red Wings visiting the Senators as they combine to hit 66-49 (57.4%) while the Canucks are still the No. 1 1P Over team and combine with the Stars to go 63.45 (58.3%) with 1P Overs. And we get around 9-5 if both get at least 2 goals.
College Basketball Best Bet
West Virginia +4 at Iowa State: Ranked teams continue to have trouble covering vs. unranked teams in this season of CBB parity (we detailed a ton of them in Sunday’s column from Saturday night’s action, and unranked teams went 2-1 ATS on Sunday’s small card). There’s another one of these plays on Monday with unranked Oklahoma State as a 1.5-point home underdog vs. Baylor, but I’m less interested in fading Baylor. I will, however, fade a more inconsistent Iowa State squad here with a West Virginia team that just went to No. 3 Kansas and lost just 76-74 as 9.5-point road dogs.
NBA Best Bet
Heat +6 at 76ers: This is basically an “anti-swagger” play against the 76ers as they had a 5-game winning streak snapped Saturday night vs. the No. 1 team in the East, the Celtics, so this is a letdown spot.
XFL Week 3 Best Bet
San Antonio Brahmas +4 at Houston Roughnecks: Houston was middle-of-the-pack in preseason XFL futures but now they’re the +350 favorite at Circa after routing Orlando 33-12 in the season-opener and beating Arlington 23-14 on Sunday night. Meanwhile, San Antonio lost only 18-15 to preseason favorite St. Louis in the opener and then nearly beat Orlando (30-12) by as much as Houston did. Road teams are 5-3 ATS so far in the XFL, so I think Houston is being given too much for home-field advantage in a game that I feel should be closer to pick-’em, or at least under a field goal.
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