Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated series odds, probabilities, and predictions for Monday, May 22nd

May 22, 2023 08:29 AM

Never before have the first four games of the conference finals gone to overtime, but it shouldn't come as a big surprise given how tightly lined these matchups were. Still, two teams, Carolina and Dallas, are left trailing 0-2. Read on for updates betting odds, series probabilities, and predictions.

Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated series odds, probabilities, and predictions for Monday, May 22nd

Updated Series Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Florida Panthers (-425) vs Carolina Hurricanes (+330)
  • Dallas Stars (+300) vs Vegas Golden Knights (-400)


Golden Knights take 2-0 series lead with comeback win over Stars in overtime.

Dallas was badly outplayed at in Game 1 but came back with a strong effort in Game 2. The Stars held a 57 percent edge in shot attempts over the Golden Knights and, according to stats website Evolving Hockey, expected goals were 3.55 – 2.61 in favor of the road team. Unfortunately for the Stars, they were only able to beat Vegas goaltender Adin Hill twice, and that gave Vegas room to come back and not only tie the game but win it in overtime.

The series now shifts to Dallas, and while they are currently a 3/1 series underdog, the Game 3 odds are in the Stars’ favor. Dallas is a -135 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, but some shops, like Circa Sports, have the Stars listed around -145. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights’ odds range from +115 to +125, or better depending on where you shop at.

I have the Stars projected to win Game 3 approximately 55.5 percent of the time, which converts to odds of -125, so while I do think the Stars will win the game, I am closer to betting on Vegas than I am to betting on Dallas, but I’m not there yet.  

Updated Series Probabilities

Vegas Golden Knights Win Series: 79%

  • 4 Games: 20%
  • 5 Games: 26%
  • 6 Games: 18%
  • 7 Games: 15%


Dallas Stars Win Series: 21%

  • 6 Games: 7.5%
  • 7 Games: 13.5%


As you can see, my projection for the series is in the middle of where sportsbooks like DraftKings have the series odds listed at. Dallas still has life, but not capitalizing on their strong performance in Game 2 is likely going to come back to bite them and it’s concerning that Jake Oettinger has only had one quality start since the start of the second round: Game 7 versus Seattle.

Today’s NHL Odds via VSiN

Carolina Hurricanes (-105) at Florida Panthers (-115)

As mentioned in Sunday’s write up, it looks like, for now, my run of betting the Panthers has come to an end. Florida was a much bigger underdog on the road in the first two games than they are at home in Game 3 and my model is now more in line with how the betting market is pricing them:

  • Carolina Hurricanes: 48.5% (+106)
  • Florida Panthers: 51.5% (-106)


Florida hasn’t played good enough to warrant a bet at the current odds, but I’m not inclined to bet against them, either, because in each of the last two rounds, the Panthers picked up the slack once the series shifted to Florida. Not to mention, ‘Playoff Bob’ is on fire right now.

Check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

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Matt Youmans: Money Line - Panthers (-120) vs Golden Knights. View more picks.


Sharp Money: When betting on Grand Slams, look to parlay heavy favorites together in the first round. View more tips.