Read on for updates betting odds, series probabilities, and best bets. Also, check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated series odds, probabilities, and best bets for Wednesday, May 24th
Vegas is one step closer to reaching the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in just six years after the Golden Knights shutout the Dallas Stars by a score of 4-0 in Game 3. Meanwhile, the Florida Panthers look to book their ticket on Wednesday, as they have a chance to sweep the Carolina Hurricanes. Read on for the latest odds, series probabilities, and best bets for Wednesday, May 24th.
- Florida Panthers (-1600) vs Carolina Hurricanes (+900)
- Dallas Stars (+1000) vs Vegas Golden Knights (-1800)
Adin Hill shuts out Stars to give Golden Knights 3-0 series lead.
Game 3 of the Western Conference final featured a lot of drama early as the captain of the Dallas Stars, Jamie Benn, was ejected after cross-checking Vegas captain Mark Stone in the face and neck area while he was in a vulnerable position on the ice. Benn clearly had time to make a better decision but chose to take the selfish route and put his team at a disadvantage. Not only were the Stars without their captain for the remainder of the game, but they had to play shorthanded for five minutes and trailed 0-3 before the midway point of the first period.
Stars’ goaltender Jake Oettinger was pulled again after allowing three goals on five shots, and he still hasn’t had a quality start in the series. Oettinger rose to the occasion in Game 7 of the Stars’ second-round series versus the Seattle Kraken, but outside of a decent performance in the first round versus the Minnesota Wild, the 24-year-old has not been up to the task. According to stats website Evolving Hockey, Oettinger has allowed around six goals more than what an average goaltender would have had they faced the same number of shots.
Updated Series Probabilities
Vegas Golden Knights Win Series: 93%
- 4 Games: 50%
- 5 Games: 22%
- 6 Games: 14%
- 7 Games: 7%
Dallas Stars Win Series: 7%
There’s a decent chance that Benn will be suspended for Game 4, at least, and if that’s the case, I have the Stars’ chances of winning at around 52 percent, so a fair moneyline is around -108 in favor of the home team. There’s a 72 percent chance that Vegas gets it done in five or fewer games, though, and a 94 percent chance that they win the series.
Today’s NHL Odds via VSiN
Carolina Hurricanes (-105) at Florida Panthers (-115)
Panthers’ head coach Paul Maurice said he was optimistic that captain Aleksander Barkov will be able to play in Game 4, but he did not provide any other information. Of course, if Barkov can’t play, that will shift things enough that the Hurricanes would be a small favorite, but assuming he’s in the lineup, the line is right. My model sees this game as a coin flip if the Panthers are at full strength.
Game Total Over 5.5 Goals (+105)
Scoring has trended downward as this series has gone on, and the total has been adjusted after each game. However, after the two teams combined for just one goal in Game 3, the total (5.5) for Game 4 is shaded toward the under a lot more than it was in Game 3, which was priced close to a pick ‘em. The goaltending (particularly on the Panthers’ side) has been great, but both squads have a lot of good shooters and I expect them to break through at some point and the odds are a lot more enticing than they were heading into Game 3.
All bets tracked via Betstamp.
Check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs.