Read on for updates betting odds, series probabilities, and best bets. Also, check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated series odds, probabilities, and best bets for Tuesday, May 23rd
The Carolina Hurricanes have been pushed to the brink of elimination by the Florida Panthers, who now lead the series 3-0, after another amazing goaltending performance by Sergei Bobrovsky. On Tuesday, the Dallas Stars will look to avoid suffering the same fate, as the Vegas Golden Knights look to go up 3-0. Read on for updated betting odds, series probabilities, and best bets.
- Florida Panthers (-1600) vs Carolina Hurricanes (+900)
- Dallas Stars (+300) vs Vegas Golden Knights (-400)
Sergei Bobrovsky shuts out Hurricanes, Panthers take 3-0 series lead.
The legend of ‘Playoff Bob’ continues to grow. If there were any doubts that Sergei Bobrovsky was the Panthers’ most valuable player, they were put to rest after his shutout performance in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference final. Bobrovsky stopped all 32 shots he faced, and he is now the clear favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy (+210) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
There’s about a 50-50 chance that the Hurricanes will be swept in in Game 4, but there’s a 93 percent chance that Florida will win the series. So, according to my hockey betting model, a fair moneyline for Game 4 is even money, but a fair series line is -1330 in favor of the Panthers. However, if Panthers’ captain Aleksandar Barkov misses anymore time, things would change.
Barkov left in the first period of Game 3 and did not return, but head coach Paul Maurice said there was a point in the game where it looked like he would be back, and he didn’t believe the injury was all that serious. The betting market probably won’t know for sure until closer to Game 4, but if the coach is optimistic, I’m not going to rule him out.
Updated Series Probabilities
Florida Panthers Win Series: 93%
- 4 Games: 50%
- 5 Games: 22%
- 6 Games: 14%
- 7 Games: 7%
Carolina Hurricanes Win Series: 7%
It’s incredible to think that this is the third time (2009, 2019, 2023) that the Carolina Hurricanes have been to the Eastern Conference final since they won the Stanley Cup back in 2006, and if they lose Game 4, it’ll be the third time in a row that they’ve been swept after making it this far.
Today’s NHL Odds via VSiN
Vegas Golden Knights (+125) at Dallas Stars (-145)
As mentioned in Monday’s write up, I’m a lot closer to betting on the Golden Knights to win Game 3 than I am to betting on the Dallas Stars, as my hockey betting model makes the Stars a -125 favorite. There probably won’t end up being enough value, though.
Best Bet
Wyatt Johnston Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+130)
Several players have contributed to the Stars’ success this postseason, but no player has grown as much as rookie Wyatt Johnston. The 20-year-old has just six points (four goals and two assists) in 15 playoff games, but he ranks third on the team in shots with 44. Only Roope Hintz and Tyler Seguin have shot the puck more than Johnston.
Johnston’s shot total has bounced around throughout these playoffs, sometimes being set at 1.5 and other times 2.5, but he’s registered at least three shots in 53 percent of his games this postseason and has hit the net at 15 times in the last three games. Dallas must throw everything they have at Vegas in Game 3, and Stars’ head coach clearly has a lot of confidence in the rookie, who plays on a line with captain Jamie Benn. Johnston should have plenty of opportunities to get pucks on net on Tuesday.
Check out the VSiN Hockey Betting Podcast Monday – Friday throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs. All bets tracked via Betstamp.